Will NASA GISS report a global surface temperature anomaly of at least +1.45 °C (vs. 1951–1980) for October 2026?
échéance 2026-11-20
confiance moyenne
preuve niveau 1
25 %estimation PolySignal
Critère de résolution
Resolves YES if the NASA GISS file GISTEMP v4 land-ocean monthly means (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv), read for the first time on or after 2026-11-20, shows a value >= +1.45 °C for October 2026 (row 2026, column Oct). The value read at that moment is final; later revisions do not change the outcome. If the value is not yet published on 2026-11-20, the check is repeated until 2026-11-30, after which the question is voided. Also voided if NASA changes the dataset version or the 1951–1980 baseline. Reference at creation: +1.40 °C (August 2026). Data: GISTEMP Team, GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP), version 4, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
État de départ vérifié
Computed base rate: 38% of two-month changes in the NASA GISTEMP monthly anomaly since 1990 reached the change implied by this threshold (threshold 1.45 °C rounded up to 0.05 °C; reference 1.4 °C in 2026-08). Overlapping windows: small effective sample.
Les arguments ci-dessous ont été produits par le modèle en anglais. Ils sont affichés tels quels plutôt que traduits automatiquement, pour que rien sur cette page ne soit un texte que PolySignal n'a pas réellement écrit.
Ce qui fait monter
- The base rate of 38% represents a significant historical probability of reaching the threshold [1].
- September 2026 ERA5 anomaly maps to a warm +1.39 °C in GISTEMP, keeping the baseline relatively high [1].
Ce qui fait descendre
- Early October 2026 ERA5 data (first 6 days) shows a lower anomaly of +0.73 °C, which is a drop from September's +0.82 °C [1].
- A projected October GISTEMP anomaly based on early ERA5 data points to roughly +1.30 °C, well below the +1.45 °C threshold [1].
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre
The temperature trend over the remaining 25 days of October 2026, which could deviate significantly from the first 6 days.
Comment ce chiffre est fabriqué
| Échéance | 2026-11-20 |
| Taux de base | 38% |
| Meilleure preuve | niveau 1 · 1 article(s) utilisé(s) |
| Estimations | 22 · 28 (écart 6 pts) |
| Confiance | moyenne |
| Plafond de preuve | non déclenché |
| Révisée le | 2026-10-08 20:59 |
| Modèle | gemini-3.5-flash |
Sources consultées
Historique de la probabilité
2026-10-08 20:59 25% 0 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.5-flash
- Ce qui fait monter. The base rate of 38% represents a significant historical probability of reaching the threshold [1].
- Ce qui fait monter. September 2026 ERA5 anomaly maps to a warm +1.39 °C in GISTEMP, keeping the baseline relatively high [1].
- Ce qui fait descendre. Early October 2026 ERA5 data (first 6 days) shows a lower anomaly of +0.73 °C, which is a drop from September's +0.82 °C [1].
- Ce qui fait descendre. A projected October GISTEMP anomaly based on early ERA5 data points to roughly +1.30 °C, well below the +1.45 °C threshold [1].
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The temperature trend over the remaining 25 days of October 2026, which could deviate significantly from the first 6 days.
2026-10-08 19:45 30% 0 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
- Ce qui fait monter. Long-term anthropogenic warming trend increases the frequency of monthly anomalies exceeding +1.40 °C [1]
- Ce qui fait monter. The August 2026 anomaly of +1.40 °C provides a high starting point for the two-month window [1]
- Ce qui fait descendre. The September 2026 ERA5 proxy of +0.82 °C suggests a GISTEMP equivalent of approximately 1.39 °C, which is below the target [1]
- Ce qui fait descendre. Preliminary ERA5 data for the first 6 days of October (+0.73 °C) indicates a cooling trend relative to September, mapping to roughly 1.30 °C in GISTEMP [1]
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The high volatility of monthly temperature anomalies and the fact that only 6 days of October data are currently available.