Will U.S. initial jobless claims (seasonally adjusted) for the week ending Saturday October 17, 2026 be at least 205,000?
échéance 2026-10-23
confiance moyenne
preuve niveau 2
15 %estimation PolySignal
Critère de résolution
Resolves YES if the first value read on or after 2026-10-23 from the FRED series ICSA (initial claims for unemployment insurance, seasonally adjusted, weekly, week ending Saturday (U.S. Employment and Training Administration), republished by FRED) for the observation dated 2026-10-17 is at least 205,000. This is the advance figure published on the Thursday before; the value read at that moment is final (later weekly revisions do not change the outcome). If the 2026-10-17 observation is not yet available on 2026-10-23, the check is repeated until 2026-10-30, after which the question is voided. Also voided if the series is discontinued or its definition changes. Reference at creation: 197,000 (week ending 2026-10-03). Data: U.S. Employment and Training Administration, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
État de départ vérifié
Computed base rate: 28% of past two-week changes in this weekly series since 1990 reached the change implied by this threshold (threshold 205,000, reference 197,000 (week ending 2026-10-03)). Overlapping windows: small effective sample. Data: U.S. Employment and Training Administration, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Les arguments ci-dessous ont été produits par le modèle en anglais. Ils sont affichés tels quels plutôt que traduits automatiquement, pour que rien sur cette page ne soit un texte que PolySignal n'a pas réellement écrit.
Ce qui fait descendre
- Recent Reuters reports show jobless claims edging down and remaining low (tier 2)
- Wall Street Journal articles note claims slid further and tumbled last week (tier 2)
- Multiple tier‑4 outlets report claims hovering near a 57‑year low around 197 k (tier 4)
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre
A sudden macro‑economic shock or major policy change that spikes layoffs could push claims above 205 k.
Comment ce chiffre est fabriqué
| Échéance | 2026-10-23 |
| Taux de base | 28% |
| Meilleure preuve | niveau 2 · 9 article(s) utilisé(s) |
| Estimations | 15 · 15 (écart 0 pts) |
| Confiance | moyenne |
| Plafond de preuve | non déclenché |
| Révisée le | 2026-10-09 14:23 |
| Modèle | openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq) |
Sources consultées