Will the FOMC raise its federal funds rate target range at the 2026-12-09 meeting?

échéance 2026-12-10 confiance élevée preuve niveau 2

76 %estimation PolySignal

Critère de résolution

Resolves YES if the FOMC statement published after the 2026-12-09 meeting says the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate. Resolves NO if the statement says the range was maintained or lowered.

État de départ vérifié

As of the 2026-09-16 meeting, the FOMC's own statement said: "The Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent, in support of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate." Source: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm

Les arguments ci-dessous ont été produits par le modèle en anglais. Ils sont affichés tels quels plutôt que traduits automatiquement, pour que rien sur cette page ne soit un texte que PolySignal n'a pas réellement écrit.

Ce qui fait monter

The FOMC explicitly signaled 'one more' interest rate hike to come in 2026 following its September meeting [3].
Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated that interest rates likely need to be 50 basis points higher than current levels, suggesting two more 25bp hikes [0].
The Federal Reserve is maintaining a hawkish stance to ensure a 'timelier' retreat in inflation [2], [5].

Ce qui fait descendre

The signaled 'one more' hike for 2026 could occur at the November meeting instead of December, potentially leading to a pause in the final meeting of the year [3].
Economists remain divided on whether further tightening is necessary, citing potential economic cooling [10].

Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre

The primary uncertainty is the timing of the next hike; if the Fed acts in November to get ahead of the midterm elections as suggested by some reports [1], they may opt to hold in December unless inflation data remains unexpectedly high.

Comment ce chiffre est fabriqué

Échéance	2026-12-10
Taux de base	76%
Meilleure preuve	niveau 2 · 6 article(s) utilisé(s)
Estimations	76 · 76 (écart 0 pts)
Confiance	élevée
Plafond de preuve	non déclenché
Révisée le	2026-10-02 09:07
Modèle	gemini-3-flash-preview

Sources consultées

Dallas Fed’s Logan Says Interest Rates Need to Be Half Percent Higherniveau 2 · Barron's · 2026-10-01 Fed Faces Prospect of Another Interest Rate Increase Just Before Midterm Electionsniveau 2 · The New York Times · 2026-09-25 Fed Raises Interest Rates in Push for ‘Timelier’ Retreat in Inflationniveau 2 · The New York Times · 2026-09-22 Fed approves interest rate hike, signals one more to come this yearniveau 2 · CNBC · 2026-09-16 Federal Reserve raises fed funds rate with likely more to comeniveau 2 · Financial Times · 2026-09-16 Will the Fed raise interest rates this year? Divided economists weigh in - ABC Newsniveau 4 · Breaking News, Latest News and Videos · 2026-09-24

Historique de la probabilité

2026-10-02 09:07 76% 18 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview

Ce qui fait monter. The FOMC explicitly signaled 'one more' interest rate hike to come in 2026 following its September meeting [3].
Ce qui fait monter. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated that interest rates likely need to be 50 basis points higher than current levels, suggesting two more 25bp hikes [0].
Ce qui fait monter. The Federal Reserve is maintaining a hawkish stance to ensure a 'timelier' retreat in inflation [2], [5].
Ce qui fait descendre. The signaled 'one more' hike for 2026 could occur at the November meeting instead of December, potentially leading to a pause in the final meeting of the year [3].
Ce qui fait descendre. Economists remain divided on whether further tightening is necessary, citing potential economic cooling [10].
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The primary uncertainty is the timing of the next hike; if the Fed acts in November to get ahead of the midterm elections as suggested by some reports [1], they may opt to hold in December unless inflation data remains unexpectedly high.

2026-09-29 18:29 83% 14 article(s) au dossier · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)

Ce qui fait monter. Fed Faces Prospect of Another Interest Rate Increase Just Before Midterm Elections – signals political timing for a hike [tier 2]
Ce qui fait monter. Fed Raises Interest Rates in Push for ‘Timelier’ Retreat in Inflation – indicates another move is likely [tier 2]
Ce qui fait monter. Fed approves interest rate hike, signals one more to come this year – direct hint of a forthcoming increase [tier 2]
Ce qui fait descendre. Divided economists weigh in – some argue the Fed may pause given mixed data [tier 4]
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether new inflation or labor‑market data released before the Oct 27‑28 meeting will persuade the Committee to hold rather than hike

2026-09-29 17:32 83% 14 article(s) au dossier · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)

Ce qui fait monter. Fed Faces Prospect of Another Interest Rate Increase Just Before Midterm Elections – market sees political timing pressure [tier 2]
Ce qui fait monter. Fed approves interest rate hike, signals one more to come this year – explicit hint of another hike [tier 2]
Ce qui fait monter. Federal Reserve raises fed funds rate with likely more to come – suggests continuation of tightening cycle [tier 2]
Ce qui fait monter. Fed Raises Interest Rates in Push for ‘Timelier’ Retreat in Inflation – indicates aggressive stance to curb inflation [tier 2]
Ce qui fait descendre. Divided economists weigh in – some analysts expect the Fed may pause given recent rapid hikes [tier 4]
Ce qui fait descendre. Fed Officials Don’t Sound Done Hiking – hints of possible caution or pause [tier 4]
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Upcoming inflation and labor market data released just before the meeting could sway the Committee either way.

2026-09-27 09:03 40% 11 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.6-flash

Ce qui fait monter. The FOMC raised rates by 25 basis points in September 2026 and signaled that another rate increase is planned before the end of the year [tier 2, article 2, 4].
Ce qui fait monter. Fed officials continue to emphasize pushing for a timelier retreat in inflation, maintaining upward pressure on interest rates [tier 2, article 1].
Ce qui fait descendre. The FOMC signaled only one additional rate hike for the rest of 2026, which may occur at the pre-midterm election meeting in November rather than in December [tier 2, article 0, 2].
Ce qui fait descendre. If the Fed acts in November, the Committee is likely to maintain the rate in December to assess economic data.
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether the FOMC chooses to implement its remaining projected 2026 rate hike at the November meeting or defers it to the December meeting.

2026-09-26 09:03 55% 10 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview

Ce qui fait monter. The FOMC explicitly signaled 'one more' rate hike for 2026 during its September 16 meeting [1][3].
Ce qui fait monter. Recent rhetoric from Fed officials suggests they do not believe the current interest rate level is sufficient to stop hiking [6].
Ce qui fait monter. Major press outlets are actively discussing the prospect of an October hike despite its proximity to elections [0].
Ce qui fait descendre. The October meeting occurs just days before the midterm elections, which may lead the Fed to pause to maintain an appearance of political neutrality [0].
Ce qui fait descendre. Economists are currently divided on the timing of the next hike, with some expecting a pause until December [5].
Ce qui fait descendre. The Fed often prefers to skip meetings between hikes to assess the impact of previous increases, and they just raised rates in September [1].
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether the Fed prioritizes the 'one more' hike in October to stay ahead of inflation or waits until the December meeting to gather more economic data.

2026-09-24 22:41 44% 6 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.6-flash

Ce qui fait monter. The Fed signaled at its September 2026 meeting that one more rate hike is expected before the end of the year, keeping a December rate increase actively on the table [tier 2, article 0].
Ce qui fait monter. Persistent inflation pressures or strong labor market data through Q4 could compel the FOMC to deliver the signaled rate hike at the December meeting [tier 2, article 2].
Ce qui fait descendre. If the Fed chooses to implement its single remaining signaled rate hike at the preceding autumn meeting, it would likely hold rates steady at the December meeting [tier 2, article 0].
Ce qui fait descendre. Incoming economic data between September and December could show sufficient slowing in inflation or growth, prompting the Committee to pause completely for the rest of the year [tier 2, article 2].
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether the Fed executes its signaled remaining 2026 rate hike at the meeting prior to December 9 or holds off until December, alongside incoming inflation and employment data.

2026-09-24 22:12 38% 6 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3.5-flash

Ce qui fait monter. The Fed raised rates in September 2026 and signaled that one more rate hike is expected before the end of the year [0].
Ce qui fait monter. Media reports indicate that the Fed expects more tightening is likely to come, suggesting the hiking cycle is not yet finished [2].
Ce qui fait descendre. With two meetings remaining in 2026 (October and December), the Fed may choose to pause in October to observe the lag effects of the September hike, deferring the final signaled hike to December [0].
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Whether upcoming inflation and labor market data will convince the Fed to hike immediately in October or wait until the December meeting.