Will the U.S. annual CPI inflation rate for November 2026 be at least 3.7 %?
échéance 2026-12-20
confiance moyenne
preuve niveau 2
58 %estimation PolySignal
Critère de résolution
Resolves YES if the first value read on or after 2026-12-20 from the FRED series CPIAUCNS (CPI-U, all items, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted, BLS series CUUR0000SA0 republished by FRED) shows for November 2026 a 12-month percentage change of the index (index of November 2026 divided by the index of November 2025, minus 1), computed from the published index levels and rounded to one decimal, of at least 3.7 %. The value read at that moment is final (the non-seasonally-adjusted index is not revised). If the November 2026 value is not yet published on 2026-12-20, the check is repeated until 2026-12-30, after which the question is voided. Also voided if the BLS changes the base period or the definition of the series. Reference at creation: 3.7 % (September 2026). Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
État de départ vérifié
Computed base rate: 53% of past two-month changes in this series since 1990 reached the change implied by this threshold (threshold 3.7 %, reference 3.7 % in 2026-09). Overlapping windows: small effective sample. Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Les arguments ci-dessous ont été produits par le modèle en anglais. Ils sont affichés tels quels plutôt que traduits automatiquement, pour que rien sur cette page ne soit un texte que PolySignal n'a pas réellement écrit.
Ce qui fait monter
- Recent CPI report shows a 3.7% YoY increase in September 2026, indicating inflation is at the target level and may persist (tier 2)
Ce qui fait descendre
- No forward guidance that inflation will stay at 3.7% and past volatility suggests it could ease before November (tier 2)
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre
The actual November 2026 CPI reading when released will determine the outcome.
Comment ce chiffre est fabriqué
| Échéance | 2026-12-20 |
| Taux de base | 53% |
| Meilleure preuve | niveau 2 · 4 article(s) utilisé(s) |
| Estimations | 55 · 60 (écart 5 pts) |
| Confiance | moyenne |
| Plafond de preuve | non déclenché |
| Révisée le | 2026-10-16 15:39 |
| Modèle | openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq) |
Sources consultées