Will the highest SciCode score score in Epoch AI's benchmark data reach at least 70.5 % for a model released on or before 2026-12-13?
échéance 2026-12-13
confiance moyenne
preuve niveau 1
23 %estimation PolySignal
Critère de résolution
Resolves YES if, in a snapshot of Epoch AI's benchmark data (https://epoch.ai/data/benchmark_data.zip, file "scicode_external.csv", column "Score") taken on or after 2026-12-27, at least one model with a release date on or before 2026-12-13 has a value >= 70.5 %. Reference at creation: 66.9 % (claude-opus-5-5_max, 2026-09-22). Voided if Epoch AI revises the methodology so that values are no longer comparable, or retires the file. Data: Epoch AI, CC BY 4.0.
État de départ vérifié
Computed base rate: 17% of past 60-day windows in Epoch AI's benchmark data saw the running record rise by at least the required amount (threshold 0.705, current record 0.668981481481482). Data: Epoch AI, CC BY 4.0, epoch.ai/benchmarks. Overlapping windows: small effective sample.
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Ce qui fait monter
- The current record of 66.9% was established very recently (2026-09-22) by Claude Opus 5.5, indicating that the benchmark is being actively targeted by frontier models [1].
- A 3.6 percentage point improvement is consistent with the typical performance jumps seen between iterative releases of flagship AI models in scientific reasoning and coding tasks [2].
Ce qui fait descendre
- The historical base rate for achieving this specific score increase within a 60-day window is relatively low at 17% [1].
- SciCode is a specialized benchmark for scientific coding, where gains often become more difficult to achieve as models reach higher performance tiers [1].
- There are no specific announcements of upcoming model releases from major labs (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google) within the next 60 days that explicitly target this benchmark [1].
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre
The timing of the next major frontier model release (e.g., a successor to Claude 5.5 or GPT-5) before the December 13 deadline.
Comment ce chiffre est fabriqué
| Échéance | 2026-12-13 |
| Taux de base | 17% |
| Meilleure preuve | niveau 1 · 1 article(s) utilisé(s) |
| Estimations | 20 · 25 (écart 5 pts) |
| Confiance | moyenne |
| Plafond de preuve | non déclenché |
| Révisée le | 2026-10-14 07:57 |
| Modèle | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consultées