Will Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket lift off on its first orbital launch attempt before 31 December 2026?
deadline 2026-12-31
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
31%PolySignal estimate
⚠ Evidence cap applied: the model proposed 22%, brought back to 31% for lack of sources solid enough to justify the departure from the base rate.
Resolution criterion
Yes if Neutron lifts off from its launch pad on its first orbital launch attempt on or before 31 December 2026 (23:59 UTC), whether or not the flight reaches orbit, as confirmed by a Rocket Lab press release or SEC filing. A static fire, a wet dress rehearsal or an aborted countdown does not count. No liftoff by that date resolves No.
Verified starting state
Rocket Lab's SEC filing of 10 August 2026 says Neutron's Stage 1 tank production is aligned with delivering the rocket to the launch pad in Q4 2026, that "the window for an end-of-year launch date is narrowing", and that the debut could slip into 2027. Remaining milestones: Stage 1 qualification and other critical tests, engine testing, and an integrated static fire at the Virginia pad, which CEO Peter Beck called the highest-risk milestone. The debut was already pushed from mid-2026 to late 2026 after a first-stage fuel tank ruptured during a hydrostatic pressure test on 21 January 2026 (Spaceflight Now, 10 August 2026).
What pushes it up
- SEC filing shows Stage 1 tank production is on track and an integrated static fire is planned, indicating progress toward a Q4 launch [1]
What pushes it down
- SEC filing warns the debut could slip into 2027, suggesting the Q4 2026 window may be missed [1]
- Tier‑4 reports repeatedly note further delays to 2027, reinforcing the risk of a slip [0,3,4]
What would move this number most
Whether the upcoming integrated static fire and stage‑1 qualification will be completed without further setbacks before year‑end
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-12-31 |
| Base rate | 35% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 3 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 27 · 35 (spread 8 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | applied: 22% brought back to 31% |
| Last revised | 2026-10-15 16:41 |
| Model | openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq) |
Sources consulted