PolySignal75 questions · Français

All questions

Every question has a deadline, a criterion written in advance, and a designated resolution source.

AI & tech — 22

Will Nvidia report quarterly revenue above $112 billion for Q3 of fiscal year 2027?58% · deadline 2026-12-15 Will Tesla publicly unveil the Optimus V3 robot before 31 December 2026?16% · deadline 2026-12-31 Will the new Gemini-powered Siri be available in a stable public release of iOS 27 before 31 December 2026?85% · deadline 2026-12-31 Will TSMC report revenue above $50 billion for the fourth quarter of 2026?11% · deadline 2027-01-31 Will Nvidia's market capitalisation reach $6 trillion at any close before 31 March 2027?27% · deadline 2027-03-31 Will Intel publicly announce a named external customer committed to its 14A process before 31 March 2027?60% · deadline 2027-03-31 Will Huawei commercially launch the Ascend 950DT accelerator before 31 March 2027?78% · deadline 2027-03-31 Will EuroHPC announce the selection of at least one AI Gigafactory site before 31 March 2027?43% · deadline 2027-03-31 Will Google release a model whose name begins with "Gemini 4" before 31 March 2027?53% · deadline 2027-03-31 · RESOLVED : OUI Will xAI release Grok 5 before 31 March 2027?23% · deadline 2027-03-31 Will DeepSeek release a model named R2 or V5 before 31 March 2027?39% · deadline 2027-03-31 Will an open-weights model be in the top 5 of the Text Arena leaderboard on 31 March 2027?22% · deadline 2027-03-31 Will the US government grant an export licence to China for an Nvidia chip of the Blackwell architecture or later before 30 June 2027?9% · deadline 2027-06-30 Will the US Section 232 tariff on semiconductors be modified before 30 June 2027?62% · deadline 2027-06-30 Will the European Commission open formal proceedings under the AI Act against a general-purpose AI model provider before 30 June 2027?43% · deadline 2027-06-30 Will Meta release the weights of a model in the Muse family before 30 June 2027?38% · deadline 2027-06-30 Will Mistral AI release a flagship open-weights model of a generation above Mistral 3 before 30 June 2027?12% · deadline 2027-06-30 Will Rapidus begin 2 nm mass production before 31 December 2027?11% · deadline 2027-12-31 Will a UK government bill dedicated to AI regulation be introduced in Parliament before 31 December 2027?11% · deadline 2027-12-31 Will Anthropic complete its initial public offering before 31 December 2027?83% · deadline 2027-12-31 Will Moonshot AI be listed on a stock exchange before 31 December 2027?48% · deadline 2027-12-31 Will OpenAI put its first consumer device on sale before 31 December 2027?28% · deadline 2027-12-31

Medicine — 35

Will the FDA approve bepirovirsen for chronic hepatitis B?89% · deadline 2026-10-26 Will the FDA approve neladalkib (NVL-655) for ALK-positive non-small cell lung cancer?44% · deadline 2026-11-27 Will the FDA approve ivonescimab in combination with chemotherapy in EGFR-mutated NSCLC after failure of a tyrosine kinase inhibitor?52% · deadline 2026-11-30 Will the FDA approve deramiocel in Duchenne muscular dystrophy before 30 November 2026?56% · deadline 2026-11-30 Will the FDA approve imsidolimab for generalized pustular psoriasis?48% · deadline 2026-12-12 Will the FDA grant accelerated approval to povetacicept in IgA nephropathy before 15 December 2026?72% · deadline 2026-12-15 Will the FDA approve BBP-418 in limb-girdle muscular dystrophy type 2I/R9 before 15 December 2026?73% · deadline 2026-12-15 Will the FDA approve relacorilant for hypercortisolism (Cushing's syndrome)?58% · deadline 2026-12-17 Will the FDA approve lorundrostat for hypertension?67% · deadline 2026-12-22 Will NCT04906395 (Tolmar Inc.) still show a study completion date of 30 November 2026 or earlier when checked on 30 December 2026?70% · deadline 2026-12-30 Will the CHMP issue a positive opinion on narsoplimab following re-examination before 31 December 2026?6% · deadline 2026-12-31 Will the FDA approve CagriSema for weight management before 31 December 2026?37% · deadline 2026-12-31 Will the FDA approve relutrigine in SCN2A/SCN8A developmental and epileptic encephalopathies before 15 January 2027?62% · deadline 2027-01-15 Will NCT05438407 (Pharming Technologies B.V.) still show a study completion date of 30 December 2026 or earlier when checked on 29 January 2027?56% · deadline 2027-01-29 Will Vaxcyte announce that the VAX-31 phase 3 OPUS-1 trial met its non-inferiority criteria before 31 January 2027?70% · deadline 2027-01-31 Will NCT07000136 (AstraZeneca) still show a study completion date of 4 January 2027 or earlier when checked on 3 February 2027?70% · deadline 2027-02-03 Will the FDA grant accelerated approval to z-rostudirsen in exon 51 skip-amenable DMD before 15 February 2027?70% · deadline 2027-02-15 Will NCT06641076 (MoonLake Immunotherapeutics AG) still show a study completion date of 4 February 2027 or earlier when checked on 6 March 2027?83% · deadline 2027-03-06 Will NCT04529772 (Acerta Pharma BV) still show a study completion date of 22 February 2027 or earlier when checked on 24 March 2027?59% · deadline 2027-03-24 Will the FDA approve lonvoguran ziclumeran in hereditary angioedema before 31 March 2027?81% · deadline 2027-03-31 Will the FDA approve tinlarebant in Stargardt disease type 1 before 30 April 2027?71% · deadline 2027-04-30 Will the FDA approve the paediatric extension of cefiderocol before 30 April 2027?48% · deadline 2027-04-30 Will NCT06260163 (Janssen Research & Development, LLC) still show a study completion date of 28 April 2027 or earlier when checked on 28 May 2027?66% · deadline 2027-05-28 Will the FDA approve varegacestat in adult desmoid tumours before 31 May 2027?72% · deadline 2027-05-31 Will the FDA approve AXS-12 in cataplexy associated with narcolepsy before 31 May 2027?35% · deadline 2027-05-31 Will the FDA approve encaleret in autosomal dominant hypocalcemia type 1 before 15 June 2027?57% · deadline 2027-06-15 Will NCT06736041 (Sanofi Pasteur, a Sanofi Company) still show a study completion date of 17 May 2027 or earlier when checked on 16 June 2027?65% · deadline 2027-06-16 Will the CHMP issue an opinion on apitegromab in spinal muscular atrophy before 30 June 2027?87% · deadline 2027-06-30 Will NCT05531656 (Cognition Therapeutics) still show a study completion date of 31 May 2027 or earlier when checked on 30 June 2027?72% · deadline 2027-06-30 Will NCT03319667 (Sanofi) still show a study completion date of 30 June 2027 or earlier when checked on 30 July 2027?60% · deadline 2027-07-30 Will the FDA approve bezuclastinib in advanced systemic mastocytosis before 31 July 2027?48% · deadline 2027-07-31 Will Vaxcyte publish topline results from the phase 3 OPUS-2 trial before 31 July 2027?83% · deadline 2027-07-31 Will the FDA accept the retatrutide NDA filing in obesity before 30 September 2027?77% · deadline 2027-09-30 Will a regulator accept a registration filing for intismeran autogene combined with pembrolizumab in resected melanoma before 31 December 2027?85% · deadline 2027-12-31 Will NCT05445778 (AbbVie) still show a study completion date of 31 May 2032 or earlier when checked on 30 June 2032?56% · deadline 2032-06-30

Quantum — 12

Will IBM bring a "Kookaburra" processor into service before 31 December 2026?67% · deadline 2026-12-31 Will anyone announce a demonstration of at least 120 simultaneously encoded logical qubits before 31 March 2027?35% · deadline 2027-03-31 Will NIST publish the initial draft of FIPS 206 (FN-DSA / Falcon) before 31 March 2027?62% · deadline 2027-03-31 Will IonQ publicly demonstrate at least 12 logical qubits before 31 March 2027?29% · deadline 2027-03-31 Will Infleqtion announce a system with at least 30 logical qubits before 31 March 2027?85% · deadline 2027-03-31 Will NIST publish a draft FIPS standard covering HQC before 30 June 2027?45% · deadline 2027-06-30 Will Quantinuum deliver its "Sol" system with at least 192 physical qubits before 31 December 2027?64% · deadline 2027-12-31 Will Google Quantum AI publish a peer-reviewed paper claiming to have crossed Milestone 3 before 31 December 2027?8% · deadline 2027-12-31 Will a Pasqal system with at least 1,000 physical qubits be accessible to external users before 31 December 2027?14% · deadline 2027-12-31 Will a Chinese team publish below-threshold surface-code error correction at code distance 9 or more before 31 December 2027?35% · deadline 2027-12-31 Will PsiQuantum publish a peer-reviewed demonstration of a corrected logical qubit on photonic hardware before 31 December 2027?8% · deadline 2027-12-31 Will Microsoft publish a peer-reviewed paper demonstrating a logical operation between at least two topological qubits before 31 December 2027?13% · deadline 2027-12-31

Deep tech — 4

Will the SPARC tokamak reach first plasma before 31 December 2026?14% · deadline 2026-12-31 Will SpaceX carry out an in-orbit propellant transfer between two Starships before 31 March 2027?28% · deadline 2027-03-31 Will Helion announce that it has produced electricity from fusion before 30 June 2027?23% · deadline 2027-06-30 Will SPARC demonstrate a fusion gain Q above 1 before 31 December 2027?14% · deadline 2027-12-31

Finance — 2

Will the FOMC raise its federal funds rate target range at the October 27-28, 2026 meeting?83% · deadline 2026-10-29 Will the FOMC raise its federal funds rate target range at the 2026-12-09 meeting?76% · deadline 2026-12-10