Will the FOMC raise its federal funds rate target range at the October 27-28, 2026 meeting?
deadline 2026-10-29
confidence medium
tier 2 evidence
83%PolySignal estimate
Resolution criterion
Resolves YES if the FOMC statement published after the October 27-28, 2026 meeting says the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate. Resolves NO if the statement says the range was maintained or lowered.
Verified starting state
As of the September 16, 2026 meeting, the federal funds target range was 3.75-4.00% (a 25bp increase from the prior meeting).
What pushes it up
- Fed Faces Prospect of Another Interest Rate Increase Just Before Midterm Elections – signals political timing for a hike [tier 2]
- Fed Raises Interest Rates in Push for ‘Timelier’ Retreat in Inflation – indicates another move is likely [tier 2]
- Fed approves interest rate hike, signals one more to come this year – direct hint of a forthcoming increase [tier 2]
What pushes it down
- Divided economists weigh in – some argue the Fed may pause given mixed data [tier 4]
What would move this number most
Whether new inflation or labor‑market data released before the Oct 27‑28 meeting will persuade the Committee to hold rather than hike
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-10-29 |
| Base rate | 70% |
| Best evidence | tier 2 · 4 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 82 · 83 (spread 1 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-09-29 18:29 |
| Model | openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq) |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-09-29 18:29 83% 14 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. Fed Faces Prospect of Another Interest Rate Increase Just Before Midterm Elections – signals political timing for a hike [tier 2]
- What pushes it up. Fed Raises Interest Rates in Push for ‘Timelier’ Retreat in Inflation – indicates another move is likely [tier 2]
- What pushes it up. Fed approves interest rate hike, signals one more to come this year – direct hint of a forthcoming increase [tier 2]
- What pushes it down. Divided economists weigh in – some argue the Fed may pause given mixed data [tier 4]
- What would move this number most. Whether new inflation or labor‑market data released before the Oct 27‑28 meeting will persuade the Committee to hold rather than hike
2026-09-29 17:32 83% 14 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. Fed Faces Prospect of Another Interest Rate Increase Just Before Midterm Elections – market sees political timing pressure [tier 2]
- What pushes it up. Fed approves interest rate hike, signals one more to come this year – explicit hint of another hike [tier 2]
- What pushes it up. Federal Reserve raises fed funds rate with likely more to come – suggests continuation of tightening cycle [tier 2]
- What pushes it up. Fed Raises Interest Rates in Push for ‘Timelier’ Retreat in Inflation – indicates aggressive stance to curb inflation [tier 2]
- What pushes it down. Divided economists weigh in – some analysts expect the Fed may pause given recent rapid hikes [tier 4]
- What pushes it down. Fed Officials Don’t Sound Done Hiking – hints of possible caution or pause [tier 4]
- What would move this number most. Upcoming inflation and labor market data released just before the meeting could sway the Committee either way.
2026-09-27 09:03 40% 11 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
- What pushes it up. The FOMC raised rates by 25 basis points in September 2026 and signaled that another rate increase is planned before the end of the year [tier 2, article 2, 4].
- What pushes it up. Fed officials continue to emphasize pushing for a timelier retreat in inflation, maintaining upward pressure on interest rates [tier 2, article 1].
- What pushes it down. The FOMC signaled only one additional rate hike for the rest of 2026, which may occur at the pre-midterm election meeting in November rather than in December [tier 2, article 0, 2].
- What pushes it down. If the Fed acts in November, the Committee is likely to maintain the rate in December to assess economic data.
- What would move this number most. Whether the FOMC chooses to implement its remaining projected 2026 rate hike at the November meeting or defers it to the December meeting.
2026-09-26 09:03 55% 10 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. The FOMC explicitly signaled 'one more' rate hike for 2026 during its September 16 meeting [1][3].
- What pushes it up. Recent rhetoric from Fed officials suggests they do not believe the current interest rate level is sufficient to stop hiking [6].
- What pushes it up. Major press outlets are actively discussing the prospect of an October hike despite its proximity to elections [0].
- What pushes it down. The October meeting occurs just days before the midterm elections, which may lead the Fed to pause to maintain an appearance of political neutrality [0].
- What pushes it down. Economists are currently divided on the timing of the next hike, with some expecting a pause until December [5].
- What pushes it down. The Fed often prefers to skip meetings between hikes to assess the impact of previous increases, and they just raised rates in September [1].
- What would move this number most. Whether the Fed prioritizes the 'one more' hike in October to stay ahead of inflation or waits until the December meeting to gather more economic data.
2026-09-24 22:41 44% 6 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
- What pushes it up. The Fed signaled at its September 2026 meeting that one more rate hike is expected before the end of the year, keeping a December rate increase actively on the table [tier 2, article 0].
- What pushes it up. Persistent inflation pressures or strong labor market data through Q4 could compel the FOMC to deliver the signaled rate hike at the December meeting [tier 2, article 2].
- What pushes it down. If the Fed chooses to implement its single remaining signaled rate hike at the preceding autumn meeting, it would likely hold rates steady at the December meeting [tier 2, article 0].
- What pushes it down. Incoming economic data between September and December could show sufficient slowing in inflation or growth, prompting the Committee to pause completely for the rest of the year [tier 2, article 2].
- What would move this number most. Whether the Fed executes its signaled remaining 2026 rate hike at the meeting prior to December 9 or holds off until December, alongside incoming inflation and employment data.
2026-09-24 22:12 38% 6 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
- What pushes it up. The Fed raised rates in September 2026 and signaled that one more rate hike is expected before the end of the year [0].
- What pushes it up. Media reports indicate that the Fed expects more tightening is likely to come, suggesting the hiking cycle is not yet finished [2].
- What pushes it down. With two meetings remaining in 2026 (October and December), the Fed may choose to pause in October to observe the lag effects of the September hike, deferring the final signaled hike to December [0].
- What would move this number most. Whether upcoming inflation and labor market data will convince the Fed to hike immediately in October or wait until the December meeting.