Will the U.S. annual CPI inflation rate for October 2026 be at least 3.4 %?

Resolves YES if the first value read on or after 2026-11-20 from the FRED series CPIAUCNS (CPI-U, all items, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted, BLS series CUUR0000SA0 republished by FRED) shows for October 2026 a 12-month percentage change of the index (index of October 2026 divided by the index of October 2025, minus 1), computed from the published index levels and rounded to one decimal, of at least 3.4 %. The value read at that moment is final (the non-seasonally-adjusted index is not revised). If the October 2026 value is not yet published on 2026-11-20, the check is repeated until 2026-11-30, after which the question is voided. Also voided if the BLS changes the base period or the definition of the series. Reference at creation: 3.4 % (August 2026). Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

Computed base rate: 53% of past two-month changes in this series since 1990 reached the change implied by this threshold (threshold 3.4 %, reference 3.4 % in 2026-08). Overlapping windows: small effective sample. Data: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

The actual October 2026 CPI index level when it is finally released will determine the outcome.