Will Anthropic complete its initial public offering before 31 December 2027?
deadline 2027-12-31
confidence high
tier 2 evidence
83%PolySignal estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if Anthropic shares begin trading on a US exchange following an IPO or a direct listing. The 424B4 prospectus on EDGAR and the first day of trading prevail.
Verified starting state
Anthropic confidentially submitted a draft S-1 to the SEC on 1 June 2026, stating that this "provides the option" to go public after review, without a share count or a price. The company had raised $30B in a Series G at a $380B post-money valuation.
What pushes it up
- S‑1 filed by Anthropic on 1 June 2026 indicating intent to go public [tier 1]
- IPO scheduled for November 2026 per Reuters and Bloomberg reports [tier 2]
- Co‑founders securing voting control shows organizational readiness [tier 2]
- $30 B Series G funding at $380 B valuation provides capital cushion [tier 1]
What pushes it down
- Potential market volatility and regulatory scrutiny could delay the filing or approval process [tier 2]
- No definitive filing date beyond the scheduled November 2026, leaving room for postponement [tier 2]
What would move this number most
Market conditions and SEC approval timing
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-12-31 |
| Base rate | 20% |
| Best evidence | tier 2 · 6 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 80 · 85 (spread 5 pts) |
| Confidence | high |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-09-27 09:15 |
| Model | openai/gpt-oss-20b (Groq) |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-09-27 09:15 83% 13 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-20b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. S‑1 filed by Anthropic on 1 June 2026 indicating intent to go public [tier 1]
- What pushes it up. IPO scheduled for November 2026 per Reuters and Bloomberg reports [tier 2]
- What pushes it up. Co‑founders securing voting control shows organizational readiness [tier 2]
- What pushes it up. $30 B Series G funding at $380 B valuation provides capital cushion [tier 1]
- What pushes it down. Potential market volatility and regulatory scrutiny could delay the filing or approval process [tier 2]
- What pushes it down. No definitive filing date beyond the scheduled November 2026, leaving room for postponement [tier 2]
- What would move this number most. Market conditions and SEC approval timing
2026-09-26 09:19 75% 7 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-20b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. S‑1 draft filed on 1 June 2026 indicates intent to go public [tier 2]
- What pushes it up. News reports that the IPO has slipped to November 2026 suggest a concrete timeline [tier 2]
- What pushes it up. Co‑founders seeking voting control ahead of the IPO shows organizational readiness [tier 2]
- What pushes it down. No official filing or share count announced, so the IPO remains unconfirmed [tier 2]
- What pushes it down. Market volatility and potential regulatory scrutiny could delay the IPO [tier 2]
- What pushes it down. The company has not yet shipped a prospectus or begun trading, so the event is not yet realized [tier 2]
- What would move this number most. Whether the company will file the final prospectus and complete the IPO before the end of 2027, which depends on market conditions and regulatory approval