Will DeepSeek release a model named R2 or V5 before 31 March 2027?
deadline 2027-03-31
confidence low
tier 4 evidence
39%PolySignal estimate
⚠ Evidence cap applied: the model proposed 30%, brought back to 39% for lack of sources solid enough to justify the departure from the base rate.
Resolution criterion
Yes if DeepSeek publishes on Hugging Face or api-docs.deepseek.com a model whose official name contains "R2" or "V5". Variants of V4 (V4 Pro, V4 Flash, V4-Thinking) do not count.
Verified starting state
DeepSeek V4, V4 Pro and V4 Flash were released on 24 April 2026. No R2 has ever been released despite rumours since 2025. DeepSeek has a history of unpredictable version jumps.
What pushes it up
- Rumours of an R2 or V5 have circulated since 2025, suggesting the company may be planning a new release [tier 4]
- DeepSeek’s history of unpredictable version jumps indicates they might skip or rename releases, making an R2 or V5 plausible [tier 4]
What pushes it down
- No official announcement or leak has surfaced, and the company has not released any R2 or V5 model yet [tier 1]
- The most recent release (V4, V4 Pro, V4 Flash) was on 24 April 2026, and there is no evidence of a subsequent release before 31 March 2027 [tier 1]
What would move this number most
Whether DeepSeek will announce or leak an R2 or V5 model before the deadline
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-03-31 |
| Base rate | 50% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 0 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 35 · 42 (spread 7 pts) |
| Confidence | low |
| Evidence cap | applied: 30% brought back to 39% |
| Last revised | 2026-09-24 09:08 |
| Model | openai/gpt-oss-20b (Groq) |