Will the highest Chess Puzzles score score in Epoch AI's benchmark data reach at least 82.0 % for a model released on or before 2026-12-13?
deadline 2026-12-13
confidence medium
tier 1 evidence
21%PolySignal estimate
Resolution criterion
Resolves YES if, in a snapshot of Epoch AI's benchmark data (https://epoch.ai/data/benchmark_data.zip, file "chess_puzzles.csv", column "mean_score") taken on or after 2026-12-27, at least one model with a release date on or before 2026-12-13 has a value >= 82.0 %. Reference at creation: 72.0 % (gpt-6-astra_max, 2026-09-03). Voided if Epoch AI revises the methodology so that values are no longer comparable, or retires the file. Data: Epoch AI, CC BY 4.0.
Verified starting state
Computed base rate: 16% of past 60-day windows in Epoch AI's benchmark data saw the running record rise by at least the required amount (threshold 0.82, current record 0.72). Data: Epoch AI, CC BY 4.0, epoch.ai/benchmarks. Overlapping windows: small effective sample.
What pushes it up
- The current record was set recently by a frontier-class model (gpt-6-astra_max), indicating an active release cycle [1].
- Recent advancements in fine-tuning for reasoning tasks like IMO/IOI suggest that specialized models can achieve significant performance leaps [1].
- Reported rapid declines in the cost of AI performance suggest a high rate of underlying architectural or hardware efficiency gains [0].
What pushes it down
- A 10-point improvement in a 60-day window is historically rare, occurring only 16% of the time [1].
- There are no confirmed reports or tier 1/2 announcements of models currently exceeding the 72% threshold [1].
What would move this number most
The timing of the next major frontier model release from leading AI labs before the December 13 deadline.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-12-13 |
| Base rate | 16% |
| Best evidence | tier 1 · 2 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 20 · 22 (spread 2 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-14 09:00 |
| Model | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consulted