Will xAI release Grok 5 before 31 March 2027?
deadline 2027-03-31
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
23%PolySignal estimate
⚠ Evidence cap applied: the model proposed 25%, brought back to 23% for lack of sources solid enough to justify the departure from the base rate.
Resolution criterion
Yes if xAI makes a model named "Grok 5" available (grok.com, docs.x.ai release notes, or the xAI API) to at least one category of public users. An announcement or a private demo is not sufficient.
Verified starting state
The most recent released model is Grok 4.6, on 12 August 2026. Musk mentioned Grok 4.7 within three weeks. No Grok 5 exists. Grok 5 has been described as imminent since late 2025 and has already slipped at least twice.
What pushes it up
- Grok 5 has been described as imminent since late 2025 and has already slipped at least twice, indicating intent to release soon [tier 1]
What pushes it down
- The latest released model is Grok 4.6 (12 Aug 2026) and Musk said Grok 4.7 will arrive within three weeks, suggesting focus on 4.7 before a 5.0 release [tier 1]
- Only a tier‑4 speculative article mentions Grok 5, providing no concrete shipping evidence [tier 4]
- Major version releases in this space typically take more than a year, making a sub‑year release unlikely
What would move this number most
Whether xAI will accelerate past the planned 4.7 release and ship Grok 5 before the March 2027 deadline.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-03-31 |
| Base rate | 15% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 15 · 23 · 35 (spread 20 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | applied: 25% brought back to 23% |
| Last revised | 2026-09-24 09:08 |
| Model | openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq) |
Sources consulted