Will Meta release the weights of a model in the Muse family before 30 June 2027?
deadline 2027-06-30
confidence medium
tier 1 evidence
38%PolySignal estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if Meta makes downloadable weights of a model named "Muse" publicly available (official Hugging Face repository, llama.com, or ai.meta.com), under any licence whatsoever. Existing Llama models do not count.
Verified starting state
Muse Spark, launched on 8 April 2026, is strictly proprietary (Meta AI app, website, API in private preview). Alexandr Wang mentioned plans to open future versions, without a timeline. Meta has only confirmed that existing Llama models remain open.
What pushes it up
- Article 0 announces "Muse Glimmer" as open source, suggesting a possible weight release [tier 1]
- Alexandr Wang has said future Muse versions may be opened, indicating intent [tier 1 hand‑verified]
What pushes it down
- Muse Spark is confirmed proprietary with no timeline for openness [tier 1 hand‑verified]
- No official statement or shipped repository of Muse weights exists yet; Meta only confirms Llama remains open [tier 1 hand‑verified]
- All other press mentions focus on usage, marketing, or competition, not on weight release [tiers 2‑4]
What would move this number most
Whether the "open source" claim in article 0 includes downloadable model weights or is limited to code/APIs.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-06-30 |
| Base rate | 20% |
| Best evidence | tier 1 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 38 · 38 (spread 0 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-02 09:11 |
| Model | openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq) |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-10-02 09:11 38% 21 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. Article 0 announces "Muse Glimmer" as open source, suggesting a possible weight release [tier 1]
- What pushes it up. Alexandr Wang has said future Muse versions may be opened, indicating intent [tier 1 hand‑verified]
- What pushes it down. Muse Spark is confirmed proprietary with no timeline for openness [tier 1 hand‑verified]
- What pushes it down. No official statement or shipped repository of Muse weights exists yet; Meta only confirms Llama remains open [tier 1 hand‑verified]
- What pushes it down. All other press mentions focus on usage, marketing, or competition, not on weight release [tiers 2‑4]
- What would move this number most. Whether the "open source" claim in article 0 includes downloadable model weights or is limited to code/APIs.
2026-09-25 09:08 85% 3 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-20b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. Official announcement of Muse Glimmer as open source, indicating weights are released [tier 1]
- What pushes it down. Previous Muse Spark was proprietary and Meta has not set a timeline for open release; uncertainty remains about whether the open source claim includes weights [tier 1]
- What would move this number most. Whether the open source announcement actually includes downloadable weights for Muse Glimmer