Will Nvidia report quarterly revenue above $112 billion for Q3 of fiscal year 2027?
deadline 2026-12-15
confidence medium
tier 1 evidence
Resolution being verified
SEC : 1 dépôt(s) 8-K contenant "NVIDIA" — le plus récent du 2026-09-03 (NVIDIA CORP (NVDA) (CIK 0001045810)) ·
source
58%PolySignal estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if the official Q3 FY2027 earnings release published on nvidianews.nvidia.com states total revenue above $112.0 billion. The 10-Q filed with the SEC prevails in case of discrepancy.
Verified starting state
Q2 FY27, ended 26 July 2026: $96.2B total revenue, of which $89.0B data center. Q3 FY27 guidance: $108.0B ±2%. Q2 had beaten its guidance by roughly 3.5%. (Nvidia release, 26 August 2026)
What pushes it up
- The required quarter-on-quarter growth of 16.4% to reach $112B is lower than the 17.9% growth achieved in the previous quarter [Starting State, 9].
- CEO Jensen Huang reported that demand for AI chips is 'getting even hotter' as the industry enters a 'golden age' [4, 5].
- Nvidia has a consistent track record of beating guidance, including a 3.5% beat in Q2 FY27 [Starting State].
- The transition to the Blackwell architecture is underway, which could provide a significant revenue catalyst if production ramps successfully [0, 5].
What pushes it down
- The $112B target is $1.84B above the upper bound of Nvidia's official guidance range of $108B ± 2% [0].
- The required beat of 3.7% is slightly higher than the 3.5% beat recorded in the previous quarter, and maintaining such margins becomes harder at a $100B+ scale [Starting State].
- Geopolitical tensions and a high concentration of the supply chain in Taiwan present persistent tail risks to production [8].
What would move this number most
The magnitude of the revenue beat depends heavily on the supply-side capacity to meet 'hotter' demand and the successful volume ramp of Blackwell chips.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-12-15 |
| Base rate | 40% |
| Best evidence | tier 1 · 8 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 55 · 58 · 70 (spread 15 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-09-24 21:37 |
| Model | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-09-24 21:37 58% 10 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. The required quarter-on-quarter growth of 16.4% to reach $112B is lower than the 17.9% growth achieved in the previous quarter [Starting State, 9].
- What pushes it up. CEO Jensen Huang reported that demand for AI chips is 'getting even hotter' as the industry enters a 'golden age' [4, 5].
- What pushes it up. Nvidia has a consistent track record of beating guidance, including a 3.5% beat in Q2 FY27 [Starting State].
- What pushes it up. The transition to the Blackwell architecture is underway, which could provide a significant revenue catalyst if production ramps successfully [0, 5].
- What pushes it down. The $112B target is $1.84B above the upper bound of Nvidia's official guidance range of $108B ± 2% [0].
- What pushes it down. The required beat of 3.7% is slightly higher than the 3.5% beat recorded in the previous quarter, and maintaining such margins becomes harder at a $100B+ scale [Starting State].
- What pushes it down. Geopolitical tensions and a high concentration of the supply chain in Taiwan present persistent tail risks to production [8].
- What would move this number most. The magnitude of the revenue beat depends heavily on the supply-side capacity to meet 'hotter' demand and the successful volume ramp of Blackwell chips.
2026-09-23 09:07 57% 8 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
Reasons not recorded for this revision (detailed history has only been kept since recently).
2026-09-21 19:01 62% 7 article(s) on file · gemini-3.6-flash
Reasons not recorded for this revision (detailed history has only been kept since recently).