Will NCT01953588 (Alliance for Clinical Trials in Oncology) still show a study completion date of 1 April 2027 or earlier when checked on 1 May 2027?
deadline 2027-05-01
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
82%PolySignal estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if, when NCT01953588 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 1 May 2027, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 1 April 2027 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used. If that exact field is absent or empty on an otherwise existing record, that also counts as no – a missing date is not evidence the deadline will be met, it is treated the same as a halted record.
Verified starting state
As of 3 October 2026: NCT01953588 is registered as ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, sponsored by Alliance for Clinical Trials in Oncology, with 1473 participants. Started 2014-02; announced primary completion 2027-04-01, announced study completion 2027-04-01. Record last updated 2026-06-05. The date under test is 2027-04-01. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT01953588
What pushes it up
- The trial is in the ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING phase, meaning the most time-consuming and variable part (participant enrollment) is complete, significantly reducing the risk of delay [1].
- The record was last updated in June 2026, suggesting active maintenance and no recent signals of suspension or termination [1].
What pushes it down
- No recent news or updates confirm the trial is on track for the specific April 2027 date, leaving a small risk of administrative or data analysis delays [1].
- The absence of any corroborating press or official announcements about the trial's progress means we rely solely on the static registry status [1].
What would move this number most
Whether the data analysis and final reporting will be completed by the announced date of April 1, 2027, without any unforeseen administrative or scientific hurdles.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-05-01 |
| Base rate | 85% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 0 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 78 · 85 (spread 7 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-03 09:03 |
| Model | qwen/qwen3.8-27b (Groq) |