Will NCT03574571 (Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center) still show a study completion date of 1 April 2027 or earlier when checked on 1 May 2027?
deadline 2027-05-01
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
46%PolySignal estimate
⚠ Evidence cap applied: the model proposed 50%, brought back to 46% for lack of sources solid enough to justify the departure from the base rate.
Resolution criterion
Yes if, when NCT03574571 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 1 May 2027, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 1 April 2027 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used. If that exact field is absent or empty on an otherwise existing record, that also counts as no – a missing date is not evidence the deadline will be met, it is treated the same as a halted record.
Verified starting state
As of 2 October 2026: NCT03574571 is registered as ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, sponsored by Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, with 732 participants. Started 2018-06; announced primary completion 2027-04-01, announced study completion 2027-04-01. Record last updated 2026-05-14. The date under test is 2027-04-01. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03574571
What pushes it up
- Hand‑verified status shows the trial is active but not recruiting, indicating data collection is likely underway, supporting on‑time completion [1]
What would move this number most
Unexpected issues in data analysis or regulatory review after October 2026 could delay the study completion date.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-05-01 |
| Base rate | 40% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 0 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 43 · 48 (spread 5 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | applied: 50% brought back to 46% |
| Last revised | 2026-10-03 09:00 |
| Model | openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq) |