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Will NCT03574571 (Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center) still show a study completion date of 1 April 2027 or earlier when checked on 1 May 2027?

deadline 2027-05-01 confidence medium tier 4 evidence
46%PolySignal estimate
⚠ Evidence cap applied: the model proposed 50%, brought back to 46% for lack of sources solid enough to justify the departure from the base rate.

Resolution criterion

Yes if, when NCT03574571 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 1 May 2027, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 1 April 2027 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used. If that exact field is absent or empty on an otherwise existing record, that also counts as no – a missing date is not evidence the deadline will be met, it is treated the same as a halted record.

Verified starting state

As of 2 October 2026: NCT03574571 is registered as ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, sponsored by Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, with 732 participants. Started 2018-06; announced primary completion 2027-04-01, announced study completion 2027-04-01. Record last updated 2026-05-14. The date under test is 2027-04-01. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03574571

What pushes it up

What would move this number most

Unexpected issues in data analysis or regulatory review after October 2026 could delay the study completion date.

How this number is built

Deadline2027-05-01
Base rate40%
Best evidencetier 4 · 0 article(s) used
Independent runs43 · 48 (spread 5 pts)
Confidencemedium
Evidence capapplied: 50% brought back to 46%
Last revised2026-10-03 09:00
Modelopenai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)