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Will NCT03815643 (EMD Serono Research & Development Institute, Inc.) still show a study completion date of 24 November 2026 or earlier when checked on 24 December 2026?

deadline 2026-12-24 confidence low tier 4 evidence
70%PolySignal estimate

Resolution criterion

Yes if, when NCT03815643 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 24 December 2026, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 24 November 2026 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used. If that exact field is absent or empty on an otherwise existing record, that also counts as no – a missing date is not evidence the deadline will be met, it is treated the same as a halted record.

Verified starting state

As of 2 October 2026: NCT03815643 is registered as ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, sponsored by EMD Serono Research & Development Institute, Inc., with 205 participants. Started 2019-03; announced primary completion 2026-11-24, announced study completion 2026-11-24. Record last updated 2026-09-22. The date under test is 2026-11-24. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT03815643

What pushes it down

What would move this number most

Whether unforeseen issues or regulatory delays will cause the study to be postponed beyond the announced completion date.

How this number is built

Deadline2026-12-24
Base rate70%
Best evidencetier 4 · 0 article(s) used
Independent runs55 · 55 · 70 · 75 · 90 (spread 35 pts)
Confidencelow
Evidence capnot triggered
Last revised2026-10-03 09:01
Modelopenai/gpt-oss-20b (Groq)