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Will NCT04031677 (European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer - EORTC) still show a study completion date of 21 April 2028 or earlier when checked on 21 May 2028?

deadline 2028-05-21 confidence medium tier 4 evidence
47%PolySignal estimate

Resolution criterion

Yes if, when NCT04031677 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 21 May 2028, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 21 April 2028 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used. If that exact field is absent or empty on an otherwise existing record, that also counts as no – a missing date is not evidence the deadline will be met, it is treated the same as a halted record.

Verified starting state

As of 4 October 2026: NCT04031677 is registered as RECRUITING, sponsored by European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer - EORTC, with 250 participants. Started 2021-01; announced primary completion 2027-04-21, announced study completion 2028-04-21. Record last updated 2026-09-10. The date under test is 2028-04-21. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04031677

What pushes it up

What pushes it down

What would move this number most

Whether patient recruitment and follow-up event rates progress fast enough to prevent EORTC from extending the estimated study completion date.

How this number is built

Deadline2028-05-21
Base rate50%
Best evidencetier 4 · 0 article(s) used
Independent runs45 · 48 (spread 3 pts)
Confidencemedium
Evidence capnot triggered
Last revised2026-10-04 13:16
Modelgemini-3.6-flash