Will NCT04031677 (European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer - EORTC) still show a study completion date of 21 April 2028 or earlier when checked on 21 May 2028?
deadline 2028-05-21
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
47%PolySignal estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if, when NCT04031677 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 21 May 2028, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 21 April 2028 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used. If that exact field is absent or empty on an otherwise existing record, that also counts as no – a missing date is not evidence the deadline will be met, it is treated the same as a halted record.
Verified starting state
As of 4 October 2026: NCT04031677 is registered as RECRUITING, sponsored by European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer - EORTC, with 250 participants. Started 2021-01; announced primary completion 2027-04-21, announced study completion 2028-04-21. Record last updated 2026-09-10. The date under test is 2028-04-21. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04031677
What pushes it up
- The clinical trial registry entry was recently updated on 2026-09-10, actively confirming the recruiting status and target study completion date of 21 April 2028 [1].
What pushes it down
- Clinical trials, particularly oncology studies with event-driven endpoints managed by academic networks like EORTC, frequently experience follow-up delays or administrative extensions [1].
- Any pushback past 21 April 2028, or a shift to an inactive status such as Unknown or Suspended, resolves as a failure according to the resolution criteria [1].
What would move this number most
Whether patient recruitment and follow-up event rates progress fast enough to prevent EORTC from extending the estimated study completion date.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2028-05-21 |
| Base rate | 50% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 0 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 45 · 48 (spread 3 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-04 13:16 |
| Model | gemini-3.6-flash |