Will NCT04057898 (MediciNova) still show a study completion date of 30 April 2028 or earlier when checked on 30 May 2028?
deadline 2028-05-30
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
58%PolySignal estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if, when NCT04057898 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 30 May 2028, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 30 April 2028 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used. If that exact field is absent or empty on an otherwise existing record, that also counts as no – a missing date is not evidence the deadline will be met, it is treated the same as a halted record.
Verified starting state
As of 7 October 2026: NCT04057898 is registered as ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, sponsored by MediciNova, with 234 participants. Started 2020-05; announced primary completion 2027-04-30, announced study completion 2028-04-30 — announced to the month only. Record last updated 2026-03-06. The date under test is 2028-04-30. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04057898
What pushes it up
- The trial status is ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING with 234 participants, meaning enrollment delays—the primary driver of clinical trial schedule slips—are already resolved [1].
- There is a full 12-month buffer between the announced primary completion date (April 2027) and the study completion date (April 2028), offering resilience against post-treatment observation delays [1].
What pushes it down
- ClinicalTrials.gov completion dates are frequently extended by several months to account for extended follow-ups, trial close-out activities, or data management delays [1].
- Any shift beyond 30 April 2028, or a transition to 'Unknown status' or termination, resolves the question negatively with zero tolerance for slippage [1].
What would move this number most
Whether MediciNova encounters data collection or follow-up delays that prompt an administrative extension of the study completion date beyond April 2028.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2028-05-30 |
| Base rate | 57% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 0 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 58 · 58 (spread 0 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-07 21:12 |
| Model | gemini-3.8-flash |