Will NCT05445778 (AbbVie) still show a study completion date of 31 May 2032 or earlier when checked on 30 June 2032?
deadline 2032-06-30
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
56%PolySignal estimate
⚠ Evidence cap applied: the model proposed 72%, brought back to 56% for lack of sources solid enough to justify the departure from the base rate.
Resolution criterion
Yes if, when NCT05445778 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 30 June 2032, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 31 May 2032 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used. If that exact field is absent or empty on an otherwise existing record, that also counts as no – a missing date is not evidence the deadline will be met, it is treated the same as a halted record.
Verified starting state
As of 2 October 2026: NCT05445778 is registered as ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, sponsored by AbbVie, with 520 participants. Started 2023-03; announced primary completion 2027-04-30, announced study completion 2032-05-31 — announced to the month only. Record last updated 2026-06-02. The date under test is 2032-05-31. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05445778
What pushes it up
- The study is currently in the ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING stage, meaning all 520 participants are enrolled and recruitment delays are no longer a risk [1].
- Positive results for the Phase II trial have been reported, significantly lowering the risk of termination for futility [4], which is corroborated by the study's continued active status in the official record [1].
- The five-year gap between primary completion (2027) and study completion (2032) suggests a fixed long-term follow-up period, which is typically more stable than event-driven timelines [1].
What pushes it down
- The 2032 deadline is nearly six years away, providing a large window for potential administrative delays or protocol-related shifts [1].
- The resolution criteria are strict, treating any status other than active or completed (such as 'Unknown' or 'Terminated') as a failure, which is a risk if record maintenance lapses over a long duration [1].
What would move this number most
Whether the study completion date is tied to a fixed follow-up duration or an event-driven endpoint like Overall Survival, which could be delayed if patients live longer than projected.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2032-06-30 |
| Base rate | 50% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 53 · 58 (spread 5 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | applied: 72% brought back to 56% |
| Last revised | 2026-10-02 09:03 |
| Model | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consulted