Will NCT05696613 (Cerium Pharmaceuticals, Inc.) still show a study completion date of 31 December 2027 or earlier when checked on 30 January 2028?
deadline 2028-01-30
confidence low
tier 4 evidence
65%PolySignal estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if, when NCT05696613 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 30 January 2028, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 31 December 2027 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used. If that exact field is absent or empty on an otherwise existing record, that also counts as no – a missing date is not evidence the deadline will be met, it is treated the same as a halted record.
Verified starting state
As of 5 October 2026: NCT05696613 is registered as RECRUITING, sponsored by Cerium Pharmaceuticals, Inc., with 148 participants. Started 2023-03; announced primary completion 2027-04-01, announced study completion 2027-12-31. Record last updated 2026-06-25. The date under test is 2027-12-31. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05696613
What pushes it up
- No new updates to the record since June 2026, suggesting no delay has been recorded yet [tier 1]
- The study has a reasonable schedule and could finish early, which would still satisfy the date condition [tier 1]
What pushes it down
- Typical clinical‑trial delays mean a non‑negligible chance the completion date will be pushed back beyond 31 Dec 2027 [tier 1]
- The lack of any record updates in the past 3 months may indicate impending schedule changes [tier 1]
What would move this number most
Whether the study will experience a delay that pushes the completion date beyond 31 Dec 2027
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2028-01-30 |
| Base rate | 70% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 0 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 35 · 35 · 65 · 72 · 75 (spread 40 pts) |
| Confidence | low |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-05 07:35 |
| Model | openai/gpt-oss-20b (Groq) |