Will NCT06260163 (Janssen Research & Development, LLC) still show a study completion date of 28 April 2027 or earlier when checked on 28 May 2027?
deadline 2027-05-28
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
66%PolySignal estimate
⚠ Evidence cap applied: the model proposed 58%, brought back to 66% for lack of sources solid enough to justify the departure from the base rate.
Resolution criterion
Yes if, when NCT06260163 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 28 May 2027, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 28 April 2027 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used. If that exact field is absent or empty on an otherwise existing record, that also counts as no – a missing date is not evidence the deadline will be met, it is treated the same as a halted record.
Verified starting state
As of 1 October 2026: NCT06260163 is registered as ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, sponsored by Janssen Research & Development, LLC, with 112 participants. Started 2024-01; announced primary completion 2027-02-10, announced study completion 2027-04-28. Record last updated 2026-09-25. The date under test is 2027-04-28. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06260163
What pushes it up
- No evidence of a change in the study completion date since the last update on 25 September 2026 (tier 1).
What would move this number most
Whether the trial will experience a delay or early completion before 28 May 2027.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-05-28 |
| Base rate | 70% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 0 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 62 · 70 (spread 8 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | applied: 58% brought back to 66% |
| Last revised | 2026-10-01 12:13 |
| Model | openai/gpt-oss-20b (Groq) |