Will NCT06388200 (Ocugen) still show a study completion date of 12 February 2027 or earlier when checked on 14 March 2027?
deadline 2027-03-14
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
85%PolySignal estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if, when NCT06388200 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 14 March 2027, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 12 February 2027 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used. If that exact field is absent or empty on an otherwise existing record, that also counts as no – a missing date is not evidence the deadline will be met, it is treated the same as a halted record.
Verified starting state
As of 3 October 2026: NCT06388200 is registered as ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, sponsored by Ocugen, with 140 participants. Started 2024-06; announced primary completion 2027-02-12, announced study completion 2027-02-12. Record last updated 2026-07-31. The date under test is 2027-02-12. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06388200
What pushes it up
- The study is currently ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING with 140 participants enrolled, indicating the recruitment phase is complete and the study is in the data collection/analysis phase [1].
- The record was last updated on 2026-07-31, suggesting the sponsor is actively maintaining the registration and has not recently signaled delays [1].
What pushes it down
- The study is sponsored by Ocugen, a small-cap biotech, which carries a higher risk of financial distress or operational delays compared to large pharmaceutical companies [3].
- No recent news confirms the study is on track, leaving the possibility of undisclosed delays or status changes (e.g., suspension) unverified [4].
What would move this number most
Whether Ocugen will face financial or operational issues in the next 5 months that would force a suspension or delay of the final data analysis.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-03-14 |
| Base rate | 85% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 0 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 85 · 85 (spread 0 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-03 09:02 |
| Model | qwen/qwen3.8-27b (Groq) |