Will NCT06489028 (RHEACELL GmbH & Co. KG) still show a study completion date of 30 September 2027 or earlier when checked on 30 October 2027?
deadline 2027-10-30
confidence low
tier 4 evidence
52%PolySignal estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if, when NCT06489028 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 30 October 2027, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 30 September 2027 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used. If that exact field is absent or empty on an otherwise existing record, that also counts as no – a missing date is not evidence the deadline will be met, it is treated the same as a halted record.
Verified starting state
As of 3 October 2026: NCT06489028 is registered as ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, sponsored by RHEACELL GmbH & Co. KG, with 250 participants. Started 2024-12; announced primary completion 2027-04-30, announced study completion 2027-09-30 — announced to the month only. Record last updated 2025-10-01. The date under test is 2027-09-30. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06489028
What pushes it up
- The trial is ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, meaning recruitment is complete, which historically improves on‑time completion (tier 1)
What pushes it down
- Clinical trials commonly experience delays; about half miss their original dates (tier 1)
What would move this number most
Whether unforeseen operational or regulatory delays will push the completion past September 2027
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-10-30 |
| Base rate | 55% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 0 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 30 · 38 · 52 · 55 · 58 (spread 28 pts) |
| Confidence | low |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-03 07:36 |
| Model | openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq) |