Will NCT06498414 (McGill University Health Centre/Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre) still show a study completion date of 1 June 2029 or earlier when checked on 1 July 2029?
deadline 2029-07-01
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
40%PolySignal estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if, when NCT06498414 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 1 July 2029, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 1 June 2029 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used. If that exact field is absent or empty on an otherwise existing record, that also counts as no – a missing date is not evidence the deadline will be met, it is treated the same as a halted record.
Verified starting state
As of 5 October 2026: NCT06498414 is registered as RECRUITING, sponsored by McGill University Health Centre/Research Institute of the McGill University Health Centre, with 1800 participants. Started 2025-06; announced primary completion 2027-04-01, announced study completion 2029-06-01. Record last updated 2026-05-11. The date under test is 2029-06-01. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06498414
What pushes it up
- The study is currently active and in the recruiting phase as of the last update [1].
- The timeline allows for a two-year window between primary completion (April 2027) and study completion (June 2029), providing a buffer for data cleaning and analysis [1].
What pushes it down
- The high enrollment target of 1800 participants significantly increases the risk of recruitment delays, which is the most common cause for pushing back completion dates [1].
- Academic and hospital-sponsored trials often face administrative or funding-related hurdles that lead to timeline adjustments over a multi-year period [General Knowledge].
- The resolution criterion treats 'Unknown' status as a failure; clinical trial records that are not updated for over two years often fall into this status [1].
What would move this number most
The pace of recruitment for the 1800-participant cohort is the most critical factor that would necessitate a timeline extension.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2029-07-01 |
| Base rate | 35% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 0 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 38 · 42 (spread 4 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-06 09:02 |
| Model | gemini-3-flash-preview |