Will NCT06641076 (MoonLake Immunotherapeutics AG) still show a study completion date of 4 February 2027 or earlier when checked on 6 March 2027?
deadline 2027-03-06
confidence high
tier 4 evidence
83%PolySignal estimate
⚠ Evidence cap applied: the model proposed 85%, brought back to 83% for lack of sources solid enough to justify the departure from the base rate.
Resolution criterion
Yes if, when NCT06641076 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 6 March 2027, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 4 February 2027 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used.
Verified starting state
As of 25 September 2026: NCT06641076 is registered as ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, sponsored by MoonLake Immunotherapeutics AG, with 960 participants. Started 2024-10; announced primary completion 2027-02-04, announced study completion 2027-02-04. Record last updated 2026-08-12. The date under test is 2027-02-04. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06641076
What pushes it up
- The trial is in ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING status, meaning recruitment is fully completed, eliminating the most common source of trial delays [tier 1].
- MoonLake announced positive topline results for the Phase 3 IZAR-1 trial in August 2026, indicating that the primary clinical phase is complete and analyzed [tier 4, Article 0].
What pushes it down
- Administrative delays in final data lock or reporting could still lead to minor adjustments of the official study completion date on clinicaltrials.gov [tier 1].
What would move this number most
Whether administrative processing of the final trial data causes a minor delay in updating the official study completion date on clinicaltrials.gov.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-03-06 |
| Base rate | 75% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 83 · 83 (spread 0 pts) |
| Confidence | high |
| Evidence cap | applied: 85% brought back to 83% |
| Last revised | 2026-09-25 02:31 |
| Model | gemini-3.5-flash |
Sources consulted