Will NCT06804811 (Incyte Corporation) still show a study completion date of 1 December 2027 or earlier when checked on 31 December 2027?
deadline 2027-12-31
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
36%PolySignal estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if, when NCT06804811 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 31 December 2027, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 1 December 2027 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used. If that exact field is absent or empty on an otherwise existing record, that also counts as no – a missing date is not evidence the deadline will be met, it is treated the same as a halted record.
Verified starting state
As of 7 October 2026: NCT06804811 is registered as RECRUITING, sponsored by Incyte Corporation, with 250 participants. Started 2025-11; announced primary completion 2027-04-30, announced study completion 2027-12-01. Record last updated 2026-07-22. The date under test is 2027-12-01. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06804811
What pushes it up
- The trial is already in the 'RECRUITING' phase, which suggests that the initial setup and site activation phases are complete [1].
- Incyte Corporation is an experienced sponsor, which typically correlates with better adherence to clinical timelines than smaller firms [1].
What pushes it down
- Clinical trials are historically prone to recruitment delays, with a high percentage of studies failing to meet their original deadlines [1].
- The resolution criteria are stringent, counting any delay or a lapse into 'Unknown' status as a failure [1].
- The specific date of December 1, 2027, leaves no room for the common practice of shifting to a month-end completion date (e.g., December 31, 2027), which would count as a delay per the resolution criteria [1].
What would move this number most
The primary uncertainty is the rate of patient recruitment and whether any unforeseen safety or efficacy signals emerge that require protocol amendments.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-12-31 |
| Base rate | 40% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 0 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 33 · 38 (spread 5 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-07 09:04 |
| Model | gemini-3-flash-preview |