Will NCT06998524 (Hoffmann-La Roche) still show a study completion date of 30 April 2029 or earlier when checked on 30 May 2029?
deadline 2029-05-30
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
34%PolySignal estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if, when NCT06998524 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 30 May 2029, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 30 April 2029 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used. If that exact field is absent or empty on an otherwise existing record, that also counts as no – a missing date is not evidence the deadline will be met, it is treated the same as a halted record.
Verified starting state
As of 6 October 2026: NCT06998524 is registered as RECRUITING, sponsored by Hoffmann-La Roche, with 75 participants. Started 2025-06; announced primary completion 2027-04-30, announced study completion 2029-04-30. Record last updated 2026-09-09. The date under test is 2029-04-30. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT06998524
What pushes it up
- Hoffmann-La Roche is a well-funded, major pharmaceutical sponsor with substantial resources to manage and expedite trial operations [1].
- The trial has been active since June 2025 and is currently recruiting, indicating ongoing progress [1].
What pushes it down
- Clinical trials face high rates of recruitment delays, with some studies estimating that 80% or more of trials fail to meet initial enrollment timelines [2].
- The remaining timeframe of over 2.5 years leaves ample opportunity for unforeseen delays, protocol amendments, or administrative lag to push back the completion date [2].
- Any transition of the trial status to 'Suspended', 'Terminated', or 'Unknown' would trigger a negative resolution under the criteria [1].
What would move this number most
Whether the trial can successfully complete recruitment of its 75 participants on schedule by the primary completion date of April 2027.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2029-05-30 |
| Base rate | 30% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 0 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 30 · 38 (spread 8 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-06 07:39 |
| Model | gemini-3.5-flash |