Will NCT07000136 (AstraZeneca) still show a study completion date of 4 January 2027 or earlier when checked on 3 February 2027?
deadline 2027-02-03
confidence low
tier 4 evidence
70%PolySignal estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if, when NCT07000136 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 3 February 2027, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 4 January 2027 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used.
Verified starting state
As of 30 September 2026: NCT07000136 is registered as ACTIVE_NOT_RECRUITING, sponsored by AstraZeneca, with 473 participants. Started 2025-06; announced primary completion 2027-01-04, announced study completion 2027-01-04. Record last updated 2026-07-16. The date under test is 2027-01-04. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT07000136
What pushes it down
- Typical delay rate of 20‑25% for clinical trials, which could push the completion date later. (tier 4)
What would move this number most
Whether the study will experience a delay or early completion before the deadline.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-02-03 |
| Base rate | 75% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 0 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 38 · 70 · 70 · 85 · 88 (spread 50 pts) |
| Confidence | low |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-09-30 14:09 |
| Model | openai/gpt-oss-20b (Groq) |