Will NCT07102628 (Novartis Pharmaceuticals) still show a study completion date of 11 February 2027 or earlier when checked on 13 March 2027?
deadline 2027-03-13
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
54%PolySignal estimate
⚠ Evidence cap applied: the model proposed 55%, brought back to 54% for lack of sources solid enough to justify the departure from the base rate.
Resolution criterion
Yes if, when NCT07102628 is read on clinicaltrials.gov on 13 March 2027, the exact API field protocolSection.statusModule.completionDateStruct.date — Study Completion Date is 11 February 2027 or earlier — that is, the date announced today has not been pushed back. A later recorded date counts as no. If OverallStatus is Terminated, Withdrawn, Suspended, or Unknown status, that counts as no — an unmaintained or halted record is treated as a failure to hold the date, not as a technicality. The value returned by the ClinicalTrials.gov API on the deadline prevails; where the record gives a month without a day, the last day of that month is used. If that exact field is absent or empty on an otherwise existing record, that also counts as no – a missing date is not evidence the deadline will be met, it is treated the same as a halted record.
Verified starting state
As of 3 October 2026: NCT07102628 is registered as RECRUITING, sponsored by Novartis Pharmaceuticals, with 300 participants. Started 2025-10; announced primary completion 2027-02-11, announced study completion 2027-02-11. Record last updated 2026-09-16. The date under test is 2027-02-11. Source: clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT07102628
What pushes it up
- Novartis updated the trial record recently on 16 September 2026 and maintained the 11 February 2027 completion date, indicating near-term confidence [1].
- With less than five months remaining until the completion date, there is limited time for major timeline adjustments unless recruitment is severely lagging [1].
What pushes it down
- The trial status is still listed as recruiting as of October 2026, which poses a risk of extension if the 300-participant enrollment target is not met on schedule [1].
- ClinicalTrials.gov records that fail to report completion promptly after the target date often slip into 'Unknown status', which triggers a negative resolution under the criterion [1].
What would move this number most
Whether Novartis completes enrollment in late 2026 without needing to extend the primary completion window.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-03-13 |
| Base rate | 45% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 0 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 53 · 55 (spread 2 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | applied: 55% brought back to 54% |
| Last revised | 2026-10-03 07:36 |
| Model | gemini-3.8-flash |