Will the FDA approve Inhibrx Biosciences's ozekibart for conventional chondrosarcoma by April 28, 2027?
deadline 2027-04-28
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
80%PolySignal estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if the FDA approves ozekibart for the indication stated above (Drugs@FDA entry, FDA announcement or Inhibrx Biosciences press release) no later than April 28, 2027. A complete response letter, an extension of the PDUFA date or the absence of a decision by then counts as no. An accelerated or conditional approval counts as an approval; a later label update does not change the outcome.
Verified starting state
As of October 9, 2026: according to the Inhibrx Biosciences filing of August 13, 2026, the FDA has set a PDUFA target action date of April 14, 2027. Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2007919/000200791926000044/exhibit99106302026.htm
What pushes it up
- FDA has set a PDUFA target action date of April 14, 2027, indicating a decision will be made by then [tier 1]
What pushes it down
- No tier 1 or 2 announcement of approval yet; only speculative tier‑4 reports [tier 4]
- Six serious FAERS reports raise safety concerns, potentially affecting the review [context]
What would move this number most
The outcome of the FDA review (approval vs. complete response letter) is the primary factor that could shift the estimate.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-04-28 |
| Base rate | 87% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 0 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 80 · 80 (spread 0 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-09 21:36 |
| Model | openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq) |