Will Vaxcyte announce that the VAX-31 phase 3 OPUS-1 trial met its non-inferiority criteria before 31 January 2027?
deadline 2027-01-31
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
Resolution being verified
SEC : 2 dépôt(s) 8-K contenant "OPUS-1" — le plus récent du 2026-09-03 (Vaxcyte, Inc. (PCVX) (CIK 0001649094)) ·
source
70%PolySignal estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if Vaxcyte publishes a topline results release explicitly stating that OPUS-1 met its immunogenicity non-inferiority criteria, by 31 January 2027. A delay, a failure, or a partial hit count as no.
Verified starting state
OPUS-1 enrolment complete (roughly 4,000 adults, compared against PCV21 and PCV20), topline results expected in the fourth quarter of 2026. A 31-valent vaccine must demonstrate non-inferiority across many serotypes simultaneously; partial failures on a few serotypes are common in this class. (23 March 2026)
What pushes it up
- OPUS-1 enrollment of roughly 4,000 adults was fully completed in March 2026, placing data collection and processing on track for a Q4 2026 readout, well ahead of the January 31, 2027 deadline [1]
- Recent updates in September 2026 reaffirm that the company is proceeding according to its trial timeline for VAX-31 [4]
What pushes it down
- VAX-31 is a 31-valent conjugate vaccine, creating high biological complexity where failing non-inferiority on even a few serotypes counts as a partial hit and thus a resolution failure [1]
- Operational delays in lab assays or data processing could push the topline press release past the January 31, 2027 cutoff [4]
What would move this number most
Whether VAX-31 meets non-inferiority criteria across all target serotypes without partial misses, and whether topline data analysis remains on schedule for Q4 2026.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-01-31 |
| Base rate | 70% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 4 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 62 · 70 · 72 (spread 10 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-09-19 07:40 |
| Model | gemini-3.6-flash |
Sources consulted