Will Vaxcyte publish topline results from the phase 3 OPUS-2 trial before 31 July 2027?
deadline 2027-07-31
confidence high
tier 4 evidence
Resolution being verified
SEC : 1 dépôt(s) 8-K contenant "OPUS-2" — le plus récent du 2026-09-03 (Vaxcyte, Inc. (PCVX) (CIK 0001649094)) ·
source
83%PolySignal estimate
⚠ Evidence cap applied: the model proposed 85%, brought back to 83% for lack of sources solid enough to justify the departure from the base rate.
Resolution criterion
Yes if Vaxcyte publishes an OPUS-2 topline results release by 31 July 2027, whatever the direction of the results.
Verified starting state
OPUS-2 (roughly 1,300 adults, co-administration with the influenza vaccine versus sequential administration) has completed enrolment, with results expected in the first half of 2027. OPUS-2 results will likely be contingent on those of OPUS-1 and on regulatory filing priorities. (23 March 2026)
What pushes it up
- Vaxcyte confirmed that enrollment for the OPUS-2 trial was completed as of March 2026 [1].
- Official guidance targets the release of topline results in the first half of 2027, which is before the July 31, 2027 deadline [1].
What pushes it down
- The release of OPUS-2 results is explicitly contingent on the results of the OPUS-1 trial and regulatory filing priorities, which could cause delays [1].
- Clinical data analysis and cleaning can occasionally take longer than the standard 12-15 month window.
What would move this number most
The timing and success of the OPUS-1 trial, as OPUS-2 results are contingent upon it.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-07-31 |
| Base rate | 75% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 83 · 83 (spread 0 pts) |
| Confidence | high |
| Evidence cap | applied: 85% brought back to 83% |
| Last revised | 2026-09-20 09:02 |
| Model | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consulted