Will anyone announce a demonstration of at least 120 simultaneously encoded logical qubits before 31 March 2027?
deadline 2027-03-31
confidence medium
tier 2 evidence
35%PolySignal estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if a paper (arXiv, Nature, Science, PRX) or a manufacturer announcement documents at least 120 logical qubits encoded simultaneously with active error correction on a single machine.
Verified starting state
The verified record is held by QuEra with 96 logical qubits (January 2026, 448 neutral atoms, [[16,6,4]] codes, published in Nature). Quantinuum follows at 48 (November 2025). The record jumped from 48 to 96 in two months in early 2026.
What pushes it up
- Rapid recent scaling (48→96 logical qubits in two months) suggests momentum [tier 1]
- Infleqtion demonstrated 30 logical qubits, showing other platforms are advancing [tier 2]
What pushes it down
- No announced or shipped results above 96 logical qubits yet [tier 3]
- Achieving error‑corrected 120 logical qubits is technically very challenging and no strong evidence of imminent breakthrough [tier 3]
What would move this number most
Whether any team can scale error‑corrected logical qubits to 120 within the six‑month window
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-03-31 |
| Base rate | 30% |
| Best evidence | tier 2 · 2 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 22 · 35 · 38 (spread 16 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-02 09:08 |
| Model | openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq) |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-10-02 09:08 35% 4 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. Rapid recent scaling (48→96 logical qubits in two months) suggests momentum [tier 1]
- What pushes it up. Infleqtion demonstrated 30 logical qubits, showing other platforms are advancing [tier 2]
- What pushes it down. No announced or shipped results above 96 logical qubits yet [tier 3]
- What pushes it down. Achieving error‑corrected 120 logical qubits is technically very challenging and no strong evidence of imminent breakthrough [tier 3]
- What would move this number most. Whether any team can scale error‑corrected logical qubits to 120 within the six‑month window
2026-09-25 09:05 76% 3 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. The current record of 96 logical qubits is only 24 qubits away from the 120 target, representing a modest 25% increase [1].
- What pushes it up. Neutral-atom platforms, which hold the current record, have demonstrated the ability to scale physical atom counts rapidly to support more logical qubits [1].
- What pushes it up. Competition is high, with multiple firms like Infleqtion and Quantinuum reaching significant logical qubit milestones recently [0, 1].
- What pushes it down. No new record exceeding 96 logical qubits has been announced in the nine months between January 2026 and September 2026, suggesting a possible slowdown in scaling [1].
- What pushes it down. Increasing the number of logical qubits while maintaining active error correction and high fidelity becomes technically more difficult as the system size grows [2].
- What would move this number most. Whether leading research groups prioritize increasing the quantity of logical qubits over improving the gate fidelity and circuit depth of existing ones.
2026-09-20 09:07 78% 3 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
Reasons not recorded for this revision (detailed history has only been kept since recently).