Will IBM bring a "Kookaburra" processor into service before 31 December 2026?
deadline 2026-12-31
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
67%PolySignal estimate
⚠ Evidence cap applied: the model proposed 65%, brought back to 67% for lack of sources solid enough to justify the departure from the base rate.
Resolution criterion
Yes if IBM publicly announces (IBM Quantum blog, newsroom, or hardware page) that a processor named Kookaburra is in service, described as storing information in a qLDPC memory coupled to a logical processing unit.
Verified starting state
The IBM roadmap places Kookaburra in 2026 as the first modular processor of this kind. Loon (2025) and Nighthawk (120 qubits, 2025) have shipped. No Kookaburra announcement as of 17 September 2026. IBM met its 2023–2025 milestones, but Kookaburra is the first modular architectural jump.
What pushes it up
- IBM has successfully met all of its quantum roadmap milestones from 2023 to 2025, including the recent shipping of Loon and Nighthawk [1].
- IBM typically announces its major quantum hardware advances at its annual Quantum Summit, which historically occurs in late November or December, making the lack of an announcement by September normal [1].
What pushes it down
- Kookaburra represents a major architectural jump as the first modular processor of its kind, which carries a higher risk of engineering delays compared to incremental upgrades [1].
- With only about three months remaining in 2026, the window for resolving any unexpected technical issues is very narrow [1].
What would move this number most
Whether IBM encounters unexpected integration or manufacturing challenges with the new modular qLDPC architecture before the end of the year.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-12-31 |
| Base rate | 75% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 0 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 67 · 67 (spread 0 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | applied: 65% brought back to 67% |
| Last revised | 2026-09-20 09:07 |
| Model | gemini-3.5-flash |