Will Infleqtion announce a system with at least 30 logical qubits before 31 March 2027?
deadline 2027-03-31
confidence high
tier 2 evidence
85%PolySignal estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if Infleqtion announces or publishes a demonstration of at least 30 logical qubits encoded with error correction.
Verified starting state
Infleqtion is publicly targeting a 30-logical-qubit demonstration system in 2026, within a roadmap aiming at 1,000 logical qubits in 2030. The company delivered a 100-physical-qubit system to the UK NQCC in March 2026 and reported 12 logical qubits in December 2025. It has fewer physical qubits than QuEra or Atom Computing.
What pushes it up
- Infleqtion announced a 50 logical‑qubit system in a tier‑2 Forbes article, indicating a shipped demonstration of >30 logical qubits
- Infleqtion’s roadmap targets 30 logical qubits in 2026 and 1,000 in 2030, showing clear intent
- The company delivered a 100‑physical‑qubit system to the UK NQCC in March 2026, demonstrating hardware capability
What pushes it down
- Infleqtion has fewer physical qubits than competitors like QuEra or Atom Computing, suggesting slower scaling
- No prior demonstration of >30 logical qubits before the Forbes announcement
- The Forbes article is an announcement; it does not confirm full operational status or error‑correction implementation
What would move this number most
Whether the announced 50‑logical‑qubit system is fully functional and meets the error‑correction criteria required for a demonstration
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-03-31 |
| Base rate | 10% |
| Best evidence | tier 2 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 85 · 85 (spread 0 pts) |
| Confidence | high |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-09-22 00:41 |
| Model | openai/gpt-oss-20b (Groq) |
Sources consulted