Will IonQ publicly demonstrate at least 12 logical qubits before 31 March 2027?
deadline 2027-03-31
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
29%PolySignal estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if IonQ publishes a paper, a preprint, or a release documenting at least 12 logical qubits encoded with active error correction on its hardware.
Verified starting state
The IonQ roadmap shows for 2026: 100 to 256+ physical qubits, 99.99% fidelity, 12 logical qubits, logical error rate below 1e-7, then 10,000 physical and 800 logical in 2027. No demonstration of 12 logical qubits was found three quarters of the way through 2026.
What pushes it up
- IonQ's official roadmap targeted 12 logical qubits with active error correction in 2026, leaving approximately six months before the March 31, 2027 deadline to publish results [tier 1].
What pushes it down
- No demonstration of 12 logical qubits has materialized through three quarters of 2026, leaving a very narrow window to achieve and document active error correction [tier 1].
- Recent IonQ publications focus on theoretical blueprints and resource estimations rather than experimental hardware demonstrations of multi-logical-qubit error correction [tier 4, articles 3, 4].
What would move this number most
Whether IonQ already has an unpublished preprint or experimental run demonstrating 12 logical qubits on its current generation hardware awaiting peer review or public release.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-03-31 |
| Base rate | 30% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 2 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 28 · 30 (spread 2 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-09-22 00:39 |
| Model | gemini-3.8-flash |
Sources consulted