Will Microsoft publish a peer-reviewed paper demonstrating a logical operation between at least two topological qubits before 31 December 2027?
deadline 2027-12-31
confidence medium
tier 2 evidence
13%PolySignal estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if Microsoft publishes in a peer-reviewed journal a demonstration of a two-qubit operation on topological qubits on its Majorana architecture. A blog announcement or a conference talk is not sufficient.
Verified starting state
The February 2025 Majorana 1 claim drew sustained challenges from the community (APS Physics, Physics World, Nature news) and the debate over the very existence of the topological qubit remained open in 2026. A single topological qubit is not yet established by consensus.
What pushes it up
- Microsoft announced a new Majorana 2 chip and claims progress on qubit stability [tier 2]
- SiliconANGLE reports a dramatic breakthrough in qubit stability for Majorana 2 [tier 3]
What pushes it down
- The community still doubts the existence of a single topological qubit and a Nature‑related critique casts doubt on Microsoft’s claims [tier 4]
- No peer‑reviewed results or shipped hardware have been reported yet [tier 4]
What would move this number most
Whether Microsoft can achieve a reproducible two‑qubit topological operation and get it peer‑reviewed before the end of 2027.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-12-31 |
| Base rate | 8% |
| Best evidence | tier 2 · 3 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 11 · 15 (spread 4 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-09-22 00:40 |
| Model | openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq) |
Sources consulted