Will NIST publish the initial draft of FIPS 206 (FN-DSA / Falcon) before 31 March 2027?
deadline 2027-03-31
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
62%PolySignal estimate
⚠ Evidence cap applied: the model proposed 60%, brought back to 62% for lack of sources solid enough to justify the departure from the base rate.
Resolution criterion
Yes if an initial public draft of FIPS 206 appears on csrc.nist.gov before the deadline.
Verified starting state
As of 20 July 2026, FIPS 206 is still in development, with no public draft and no announced date, while FIPS 203, 204 and 205 have been final since August 2024. The draft has been described as close since 2025, but Falcon's floating-point Gaussian sampling raises specification difficulties.
What pushes it up
- NIST has already finalized the first three PQC standards (FIPS 203, 204, 205), making FIPS 206 the primary remaining priority for the initial suite [1].
- The draft has been described as 'close' to completion since 2025 [1].
What pushes it down
- Falcon's floating-point Gaussian sampling presents unique and significant specification difficulties that have already delayed the draft [1].
- As of late 2026, no public draft or firm release date has been announced, and only six months remain until the deadline [1].
What would move this number most
Whether NIST can resolve the technical challenges of specifying floating-point arithmetic for constant-time implementations before the March 2027 deadline.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-03-31 |
| Base rate | 70% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 60 · 62 · 72 (spread 12 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | applied: 60% brought back to 62% |
| Last revised | 2026-09-21 17:51 |
| Model | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consulted