Will NIST publish a draft FIPS standard covering HQC before 30 June 2027?
deadline 2027-06-30
confidence low
tier 4 evidence
45%PolySignal estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if NIST publishes on csrc.nist.gov an initial public draft of a FIPS covering HQC, with an open comment period.
Verified starting state
HQC was selected as the fifth algorithm on 11 March 2025 (NIST IR 8545). As of 20 July 2026, no draft HQC standard had been published. More than fifteen months have passed since selection, and NIST is running FIPS 206, the third signature round, and several SPs in parallel.
What pushes it up
- The 18-month mark from selection (March 2025) is approaching (September 2026), and NIST has a history of publishing drafts around this timeframe [tier 1 - Hand-verified state]
What pushes it down
- NIST is currently running FIPS 206 (third signature round) and several SPs in parallel, which may delay HQC drafting [tier 1 - Hand-verified state]
- HQC is described as a 'backup' to ML-KEM, suggesting lower priority in the drafting queue [tier 4 - shattered.io]
What would move this number most
Whether NIST prioritizes the HQC draft over the ongoing FIPS 206 and other SPs in the next 9 months.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-06-30 |
| Base rate | 50% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 2 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 32 · 32 · 45 · 45 · 65 (spread 33 pts) |
| Confidence | low |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-09-30 09:02 |
| Model | qwen/qwen3.8-27b (Groq) |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-09-30 09:02 45% 2 article(s) on file · qwen/qwen3.8-27b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. The 18-month mark from selection (March 2025) is approaching (September 2026), and NIST has a history of publishing drafts around this timeframe [tier 1 - Hand-verified state]
- What pushes it down. NIST is currently running FIPS 206 (third signature round) and several SPs in parallel, which may delay HQC drafting [tier 1 - Hand-verified state]
- What pushes it down. HQC is described as a 'backup' to ML-KEM, suggesting lower priority in the drafting queue [tier 4 - shattered.io]
- What would move this number most. Whether NIST prioritizes the HQC draft over the ongoing FIPS 206 and other SPs in the next 9 months.
2026-09-20 09:10 72% 2 article(s) on file · gemini-3.5-flash
Reasons not recorded for this revision (detailed history has only been kept since recently).