Will a Pasqal system with at least 1,000 physical qubits be accessible to external users before 31 December 2027?
deadline 2027-12-31
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
14%PolySignal estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if Pasqal announces the availability (cloud, computing centre, or customer installation) of a machine with at least 1,000 physical qubits.
Verified starting state
On 11 June 2026 Pasqal inaugurated Italy's first neutral-atom quantum computer at CINECA, its third system in Europe. Its roadmap shows scaling beyond 1,000 qubits and 200+ logical qubits in 2029. Deployed systems remain in the hundreds-of-qubits range.
What pushes it up
- Recent experimental success with logical qubits may incentivize Pasqal to scale physical qubit counts faster to maintain competitive parity with rivals like QuEra or IBM [0, 1, 2]
What pushes it down
- Pasqal's official roadmap explicitly targets scaling beyond 1,000 qubits in 2029, which is two years after the 2027 deadline [Tier 1]
- As of June 2026, deployed systems remain in the hundreds-of-qubits range, requiring a significant jump in scale within 15 months [Tier 1]
- Scaling neutral-atom systems involves complex engineering of laser traps and vacuum systems that are difficult to accelerate [Tier 1]
What would move this number most
Whether Pasqal has an unannounced hardware generation or has significantly accelerated its 2029 roadmap since its last public update.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-12-31 |
| Base rate | 20% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 5 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 12 · 15 (spread 3 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-09-22 00:37 |
| Model | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consulted