Will Quantinuum deliver its "Sol" system with at least 192 physical qubits before 31 December 2027?
deadline 2027-12-31
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
64%PolySignal estimate
⚠ Evidence cap applied: the model proposed 70%, brought back to 64% for lack of sources solid enough to justify the departure from the base rate.
Resolution criterion
Yes if Quantinuum publicly announces that a system named Sol with at least 192 physical qubits is in service, for customers or internally.
Verified starting state
Helios's successor, "Sol", is expected in 2027 with 192 physical qubits and 100 logical qubits. Helios (98 trapped-ion qubits) is operational and demonstrated the Helix architecture in September 2026: [[20,2,6]] code, logical memory error 4.6e-5 per cycle, logical gate error 2.8e-4.
What pushes it up
- Helios (98 qubits) is already operational as of September 2026, proving the viability of the underlying Helix architecture [1]
- Sol is officially scheduled for 2027 with 192 physical qubits, giving the company over 15 months to deliver [1]
What pushes it down
- Scaling trapped-ion systems to nearly double the qubit count of Helios involves significant engineering challenges that could easily cause delays [1]
What would move this number most
Whether unexpected engineering bottlenecks in scaling the QCCD architecture delay the Sol system beyond the December 2027 deadline.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-12-31 |
| Base rate | 55% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 0 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 63 · 65 (spread 2 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | applied: 70% brought back to 64% |
| Last revised | 2026-09-20 09:08 |
| Model | gemini-3.5-flash |