Will a Starship vehicle lift off from Launch Complex 39A in Florida before 31 December 2026?
deadline 2026-12-31
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
21%PolySignal estimate
⚠ Evidence cap applied: the model proposed 30%, brought back to 21% for lack of sources solid enough to justify the departure from the base rate.
Resolution criterion
Yes if a Starship launch vehicle (Super Heavy booster with ship) lifts off from Launch Complex 39A at Kennedy Space Center, Florida, on or before 31 December 2026, as confirmed by SpaceX or the FAA. Launches from Starbase, Texas, do not count; a static fire or a launch attempt that does not lift off does not count.
Verified starting state
As of 14 October 2026 no Starship has launched from Florida. FAA planning material points to a first Florida launch from LC-39A around 10 December 2026; this target is not confirmed by SpaceX and Starship schedules have slipped repeatedly (Flight 15 itself has no official date).
What pushes it up
- FAA planning material points to a target launch around 10 December 2026 (tier 1)
What pushes it down
- SpaceX has not confirmed any date and Starship schedules have repeatedly slipped (tier 1)
- Tier‑4 articles only note preparations without firm dates, which are weak signals
What would move this number most
Whether SpaceX will confirm a launch date before the FAA’s tentative 10 Dec window
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-12-31 |
| Base rate | 15% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 2 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 18 · 23 (spread 5 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | applied: 30% brought back to 21% |
| Last revised | 2026-10-14 14:17 |
| Model | openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq) |
Sources consulted