Will Cartesian Therapeutics announce topline results from the AURORA trial of Descartes-08 in generalized Myasthenia Gravis by March 31, 2027?
deadline 2027-03-31
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
68%PolySignal estimate
⚠ Evidence cap applied: the model proposed 75%, brought back to 68% for lack of sources solid enough to justify the departure from the base rate.
Resolution criterion
Yes if, no later than March 31, 2027, Cartesian Therapeutics publicly reports the topline results of the AURORA trial of Descartes-08 (the outcome on the primary endpoint, positive or negative) in a press release or SEC filing. The deadline is the last day of the period the company gave in its filing ("first quarter of 2027"). An announcement of a delay or of a new timeline, enrollment or interim data that do not report the primary-endpoint outcome, or the absence of any announcement by that date, resolves NO.
Verified starting state
As of October 11, 2026: according to the Cartesian Therapeutics filing of September 29, 2026, the company expects topline results in the period "first quarter of 2027". Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1453687/000145368726000105/pressrelease9292026.htm
What pushes it up
- Official SEC filing from Cartesian Therapeutics on 2026‑09‑29 states topline results are expected in the first quarter of 2027 [tier 1]
What pushes it down
- Clinical trials frequently miss projected timelines; small biotech firms often face resource constraints and unforeseen safety or enrollment issues [tier 1]
What would move this number most
Whether the AURORA trial encounters any safety, enrollment, or data‑analysis delays that push the topline beyond the first quarter of 2027
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-03-31 |
| Base rate | 60% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 0 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 62 · 68 · 78 (spread 16 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | applied: 75% brought back to 68% |
| Last revised | 2026-10-12 15:59 |
| Model | openai/gpt-oss-20b (Groq) |