Will ArriVent BioPharma announce topline results from the FURVENT trial of firmonertinib in first-line EGFR exon 20 insertion mutant NSCLC by December 31, 2026?
deadline 2026-12-31
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
46%PolySignal estimate
⚠ Evidence cap applied: the model proposed 40%, brought back to 46% for lack of sources solid enough to justify the departure from the base rate.
Resolution criterion
Yes if, no later than December 31, 2026, ArriVent BioPharma publicly reports the topline results of the FURVENT trial of firmonertinib (the outcome on the primary endpoint, positive or negative) in a press release or SEC filing. The deadline is the last day of the period the company gave in its filing ("2H 2026"). An announcement of a delay or of a new timeline, enrollment or interim data that do not report the primary-endpoint outcome, or the absence of any announcement by that date, resolves NO.
Verified starting state
As of October 11, 2026: according to the ArriVent BioPharma filing of August 12, 2026, the company expects topline results in the period "2H 2026". Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1868279/000110465926094869/tm2622880d1_ex99-1.htm
What pushes it up
- The company’s own SEC filing explicitly targets topline results in 2H 2026, indicating a concrete internal schedule [tier 1]
What pushes it down
- The filing is only an announced intent, not a shipped result, and no subsequent updates have appeared as the deadline approaches, suggesting possible delay [tier 1]
- The only recent press mention is a tier‑4 article speculating about a delay, which is weak and uncorroborated [tier 4]
What would move this number most
Actual trial enrollment/completion status and any internal data read‑outs that could shift the timeline
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-12-31 |
| Base rate | 50% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 42 · 50 (spread 8 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | applied: 40% brought back to 46% |
| Last revised | 2026-10-12 16:33 |
| Model | openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq) |
Sources consulted