Will ProMIS Neurosciences announce topline results from the PRECISE-AD trial of PMN310 in early Alzheimer’s disease by March 31, 2027?
deadline 2027-03-31
confidence low
tier 4 evidence
78%PolySignal estimate
⚠ Evidence cap applied: the model proposed 80%, brought back to 78% for lack of sources solid enough to justify the departure from the base rate.
Resolution criterion
Yes if, no later than March 31, 2027, ProMIS Neurosciences publicly reports the topline results of the PRECISE-AD trial of PMN310 (the outcome on the primary endpoint, positive or negative) in a press release or SEC filing. The deadline is the last day of the period the company gave in its filing ("first quarter of 2027"). An announcement of a delay or of a new timeline, enrollment or interim data that do not report the primary-endpoint outcome, or the absence of any announcement by that date, resolves NO.
Verified starting state
As of October 11, 2026: according to the ProMIS Neurosciences filing of August 13, 2026, the company expects topline results in the period "first quarter of 2027". Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1374339/000110465926095905/pmn-20260813xex99d1.htm
What pushes it up
- Tier 1 filing from ProMIS Neurosciences explicitly states topline results expected in first quarter 2027 [tier 1]
What pushes it down
- Clinical trials often experience delays; the filing is an intent statement and not a guarantee [tier 1]
What would move this number most
Actual progress of the PRECISE-AD trial and any unforeseen delays or issues that could postpone the announcement
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2027-03-31 |
| Base rate | 70% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 0 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 55 · 68 · 78 · 78 · 78 (spread 23 pts) |
| Confidence | low |
| Evidence cap | applied: 80% brought back to 78% |
| Last revised | 2026-10-12 16:01 |
| Model | openai/gpt-oss-20b (Groq) |