Will Karyopharm Therapeutics announce topline results from the XPORT-MM-031 trial of selinexor in previously treated multiple myeloma by December 31, 2026?
deadline 2026-12-31
confidence medium
tier 4 evidence
58%PolySignal estimate
Resolution criterion
Yes if, no later than December 31, 2026, Karyopharm Therapeutics publicly reports the topline results of the XPORT-MM-031 trial of selinexor (the outcome on the primary endpoint, positive or negative) in a press release or SEC filing. The deadline is the last day of the period the company gave in its filing ("second half of 2026"). An announcement of a delay or of a new timeline, enrollment or interim data that do not report the primary-endpoint outcome, or the absence of any announcement by that date, resolves NO.
Verified starting state
As of October 11, 2026: according to the Karyopharm Therapeutics filing of August 13, 2026, the company expects topline results in the period "second half of 2026". Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1503802/000119312526347897/kpti-ex99_1.htm
What pushes it up
- Recent top‑line release of a different XPORT trial (XPORT‑EC‑042) shows Karyopharm can publish results on schedule [tier 4]
What pushes it down
- Biotech trial timelines often slip; no additional confirmation beyond the original filing that the trial is on track [tier 1]
What would move this number most
Actual trial progress and any undisclosed delays that could push the read‑out past H2 2026
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-12-31 |
| Base rate | 60% |
| Best evidence | tier 4 · 1 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 58 · 58 · 72 (spread 14 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-13 13:44 |
| Model | openai/gpt-oss-120b (Groq) |
Sources consulted