Will the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at the close of the last business day of November 2026 be at least 5.45 %?
échéance 2026-12-05
confiance moyenne
preuve niveau 2
37 %estimation PolySignal
Critère de résolution
Resolves YES if the last value published for November 2026 in the FRED series DGS10 (market yield on U.S. Treasury securities at 10-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, daily, not seasonally adjusted (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.15), republished by FRED), that is the close of the last business day of the month, is at least 5.45 %. The value is read on or after 2026-12-05 and the value read at that moment is final. If the data for that month are not yet available on 2026-12-05, the check is repeated until 2026-12-15, after which the question is voided. Also voided if the series is discontinued or its definition changes. Reference at creation: 5.28 % (2026-10-07). Data: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
État de départ vérifié
Computed base rate: 28% of past 37-business-day changes in this series since 1990 reached the change implied by this threshold (threshold 5.45 %, reference 5.28 % (2026-10-07)). Overlapping windows: small effective sample. Data: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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Ce qui fait monter
- A global bond sell-off has recently pushed U.S. Treasury yields to fresh 24-year highs [5]
- Pimco's Ivascyn warned that the 10-year yield risks hitting 6% for the first time since 2000 [0]
- The 10-year yield has shown strong upward momentum, having hit a 19-year high in September before climbing further in October [6]
Ce qui fait descendre
- Recent Treasury yields have retreated from their early October highs as traders weigh auction results [1, 2]
- A strong 10-year Treasury auction suggests robust demand, which typically acts as a downward pressure or a cap on yields [3]
Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre
The primary uncertainty is whether upcoming inflation data or Federal Reserve policy shifts will sustain the current sell-off momentum or trigger a flight to safety that lowers yields.
Comment ce chiffre est fabriqué
| Échéance | 2026-12-05 |
| Taux de base | 28% |
| Meilleure preuve | niveau 2 · 6 article(s) utilisé(s) |
| Estimations | 36 · 38 (écart 2 pts) |
| Confiance | moyenne |
| Plafond de preuve | non déclenché |
| Révisée le | 2026-10-09 13:26 |
| Modèle | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consultées
Historique de la probabilité
2026-10-09 13:26 37% 7 article(s) au dossier · gemini-3-flash-preview
- Ce qui fait monter. A global bond sell-off has recently pushed U.S. Treasury yields to fresh 24-year highs [5]
- Ce qui fait monter. Pimco's Ivascyn warned that the 10-year yield risks hitting 6% for the first time since 2000 [0]
- Ce qui fait monter. The 10-year yield has shown strong upward momentum, having hit a 19-year high in September before climbing further in October [6]
- Ce qui fait descendre. Recent Treasury yields have retreated from their early October highs as traders weigh auction results [1, 2]
- Ce qui fait descendre. A strong 10-year Treasury auction suggests robust demand, which typically acts as a downward pressure or a cap on yields [3]
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. The primary uncertainty is whether upcoming inflation data or Federal Reserve policy shifts will sustain the current sell-off momentum or trigger a flight to safety that lowers yields.
2026-10-09 12:50 33% 7 article(s) au dossier · openai/gpt-oss-20b (Groq)
- Ce qui fait monter. US 10‑year Treasury yield risks hitting 6% for first time since 2000 (Reuters, tier 2)
- Ce qui fait descendre. Treasury yields lower after reaching multiyear highs (CNBC, tier 2)
- Ce qui fait descendre. U.S. Treasury Yields Retreat From Early Highs (WSJ, tier 2)
- Ce qui fait descendre. US government bonds steady after strong 10‑year Treasury auction (Financial Times, tier 2)
- Ce qui ferait le plus bouger ce chiffre. Future monetary policy stance and inflation expectations will most influence whether the yield reaches 5.45%