Will the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield at the close of the last business day of November 2026 be at least 5.45 %?
deadline 2026-12-05
confidence medium
tier 2 evidence
37%PolySignal estimate
Resolution criterion
Resolves YES if the last value published for November 2026 in the FRED series DGS10 (market yield on U.S. Treasury securities at 10-year constant maturity, quoted on an investment basis, daily, not seasonally adjusted (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, H.15), republished by FRED), that is the close of the last business day of the month, is at least 5.45 %. The value is read on or after 2026-12-05 and the value read at that moment is final. If the data for that month are not yet available on 2026-12-05, the check is repeated until 2026-12-15, after which the question is voided. Also voided if the series is discontinued or its definition changes. Reference at creation: 5.28 % (2026-10-07). Data: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Verified starting state
Computed base rate: 28% of past 37-business-day changes in this series since 1990 reached the change implied by this threshold (threshold 5.45 %, reference 5.28 % (2026-10-07)). Overlapping windows: small effective sample. Data: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US), via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
What pushes it up
- A global bond sell-off has recently pushed U.S. Treasury yields to fresh 24-year highs [5]
- Pimco's Ivascyn warned that the 10-year yield risks hitting 6% for the first time since 2000 [0]
- The 10-year yield has shown strong upward momentum, having hit a 19-year high in September before climbing further in October [6]
What pushes it down
- Recent Treasury yields have retreated from their early October highs as traders weigh auction results [1, 2]
- A strong 10-year Treasury auction suggests robust demand, which typically acts as a downward pressure or a cap on yields [3]
What would move this number most
The primary uncertainty is whether upcoming inflation data or Federal Reserve policy shifts will sustain the current sell-off momentum or trigger a flight to safety that lowers yields.
How this number is built
| Deadline | 2026-12-05 |
| Base rate | 28% |
| Best evidence | tier 2 · 6 article(s) used |
| Independent runs | 36 · 38 (spread 2 pts) |
| Confidence | medium |
| Evidence cap | not triggered |
| Last revised | 2026-10-09 13:26 |
| Model | gemini-3-flash-preview |
Sources consulted
Probability history
2026-10-09 13:26 37% 7 article(s) on file · gemini-3-flash-preview
- What pushes it up. A global bond sell-off has recently pushed U.S. Treasury yields to fresh 24-year highs [5]
- What pushes it up. Pimco's Ivascyn warned that the 10-year yield risks hitting 6% for the first time since 2000 [0]
- What pushes it up. The 10-year yield has shown strong upward momentum, having hit a 19-year high in September before climbing further in October [6]
- What pushes it down. Recent Treasury yields have retreated from their early October highs as traders weigh auction results [1, 2]
- What pushes it down. A strong 10-year Treasury auction suggests robust demand, which typically acts as a downward pressure or a cap on yields [3]
- What would move this number most. The primary uncertainty is whether upcoming inflation data or Federal Reserve policy shifts will sustain the current sell-off momentum or trigger a flight to safety that lowers yields.
2026-10-09 12:50 33% 7 article(s) on file · openai/gpt-oss-20b (Groq)
- What pushes it up. US 10‑year Treasury yield risks hitting 6% for first time since 2000 (Reuters, tier 2)
- What pushes it down. Treasury yields lower after reaching multiyear highs (CNBC, tier 2)
- What pushes it down. U.S. Treasury Yields Retreat From Early Highs (WSJ, tier 2)
- What pushes it down. US government bonds steady after strong 10‑year Treasury auction (Financial Times, tier 2)
- What would move this number most. Future monetary policy stance and inflation expectations will most influence whether the yield reaches 5.45%